Insights for Tonight’s Last NFL Wild Card Round Game + 1st Look at Divisional Round Matchups

The AFC’s top seed starts as a home underdog

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Where we stand after the first weekend of the NFL playoffs

2. Game of the Day: Texans favored at Steelers

3. Scouting Report: NBA’s 4th-leading scorer faces league’s worst defense

4. By the Numbers: First look at NFL Divisional Round games

5. Overtime: Is there one more NFL coaching opening to come?

1. Leading Off

Wild Card Weekend was one of the most competitive starts to the postseason in NFL history: The first four playoff matchups all had game-winning touchdowns in the last three minutes and all were decided by four points or fewer. The mini-streak ended last night when the Patriots defense shut down the Chargers in a 16-3 win.

The end result: There will be a new Super Bowl champion, as the Eagles lost at home to the oft-injured but always game 49ers. The Rams and the Patriots are the only teams left in the playoffs that have won a Super Bowl in the past decade. The Rams last won in 2022 and the Patriots in 2019, quarterback Tom Brady’s last year with the franchise. After that, the Broncos have the most recent Super Bowl victory (2016), followed by the Seahawks (2014), Steelers (2009), 49ers (1995), and Bears (1986). The Bills, Chargers and Texans have never won a title, with Houston being one of four teams to never even appear in the Super Bowl (along with Cleveland, Detroit and Jacksonville).

There’s still one more Wild Card Round game to go, with the Steelers facing the Texans tonight at 8:15pm ET on ABC/ESPN, but three of four Divisional Round matchups are already set. In the NFC, the 49ers will travel to Seattle to face the No. 1 Seahawks, and the Rams will head to Chicago to play the No. 2 Bears. In the AFC, the No. 1 Broncos know they’re facing the Bills at home, and the No. 2 Patriots will host the winner of tonight’s game.

After their road upset of the Jaguars, the Bills jumped up to third in Super Bowl odds at +550, behind the Seahawks (+280) and Rams (+320). Seattle starts off as a 7.5-point favorite over San Francisco, Chicago will be a home underdog again as the Rams are favored by 3.5 points, and the Broncos got some bulletin board material as they opened as a 1.5-point home underdog to the Bills.

— Abe Rakov

Stay One Scoop Ahead of the New Year

The new year is the perfect time to build healthy habits that actually stick. AG1 helps you stay one scoop ahead of the new year by supporting energy, gut health, and filling common nutrient gaps, all with a simple daily routine.

Instead of chasing resolutions that are hard to maintain, AG1 makes health easier. Just one scoop each morning supports digestive regularity, immune defense, and energy levels, making it one of the most effortless habits to keep all year long. A fresh year brings fresh momentum, and small daily habits can make a meaningful difference.

Start your mornings with AG1, the daily health drink with 75+ ingredients, including 5 probiotic strains, designed to replace a multivitamin, probiotics, and more, all in one scoop.

For a limited time only, get a FREE AG1 duffel bag and FREE AG1 Welcome Kit with your first AG1 subscription! Only while supplies last. Get started today.

Start One Simple Habit

2. Game of the Day

Texans Are NFL’s Hottest Team and Favored on Road Against Last Team to Make Playoffs

No NFL team is hotter than the Texans, who have won nine straight games behind their league-best defense. They’ve only lost two games since starting the season with three defeats. Houston gave up 30 points last week when the team rested some starters and was looking ahead to the playoffs, but prior to that had allowed 21 or fewer points in seven games in a row. The Steelers earned their playoff spot in the last game of the regular season and have won four of five.

Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers averaged 267 passing yards in those wins, compared to just a 207 average for the season. After throwing six interceptions in his first nine games of the year, Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has just two picks in his last five — and they were in the same game. Stroud gets his top receiving target Nico Collins back after he sat out last week to rest.

Texans (12-5, 5-3 Away) vs. Steelers (10-7, 6-3 Home)
8:15pm on ABC/ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: HOU (-3, -105), PIT (+3, -115)

  • 59% of the money and 55% of the bets are with HOU

  • ATS | HOU (road): 4-4, PIT (home): 5-3

• Moneyline: HOU -162, PIT +136

• Total (38.5):

  • HOU: 6-11, PIT: 9-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• HOU QB C.J. Stroud | Pass Yards: 229.5 (217.2 - 169, 244, 187, 260, 203), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (30.2 - 23, 28, 35, 29, 31), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.4 - 1, 2, 1, 3, 1)

• HOU WR Nico Collins | Rec Yards: 71.5 (74.5 - 57, 59, 85, 121, 98), Receptions: 4.5 (4.7 - 3, 4, 3, 4, 5), Anytime TD: +150 (0.4 - 0, 0, 2, 0, 1)

• PIT QB Aaron Rodgers | Pass Yards: 204.5 (207.6 - 294, 168, 266, 224, 284), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (31.1 - 47, 39, 41, 27, 34), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.5 - 1, 0, 1, 2, 1)

• PIT RB Jaylen Warren | Rush Yards: 52.5 (59.9 - 66, 64, 143, 33, 13), Carries: 13.5 (13.2 - 14, 12, 14, 12, 8), Anytime TD: +220 (0.5 - 0, 0, 2, 0, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Cavs’ Mitchell Faces Team That Just Gave Up 150, Hurricanes’ Jarvis Could Be Heating Back up

• Cavaliers G Donovan Mitchell (vs. Jazz)

  • The Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA and just gave up 150 to the Hornets in a 55-point loss on Saturday. Mitchell is not who they want to see next. The NBA’s fourth-leading scorer had netted at least 30 points in four straight before his 28-point performance on Saturday. Mitchell only has back-to-back under 30-point performances four times this season. Some of the league’s top scorers have had their way with the Jazz recently: In Utah’s first four games of January, Kawhi Leonard scored 45, Stephen Curry went for 31, Deni Avdija netted 33, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his second-highest scoring performance of the year with 46.

  • Points: 29.5 (29.8 - 28, 30, 30, 33, 34), Reb: 4.5 (4.7 - 3, 7, 6, 6, 10), Ast: 00 (5.6 - 8, 8, 3, 5, 7)

  • UTA - L1 (3-7 L10) | Points Against: 127.3 (30th), Reb Against: 45.5 (23rd), Ast Against: 30.2 (30th)

• Lakers G Luka Doncic (at Kings)

  • Doncic had his first sub-30 point game since Christmas in an 8-25 shooting performance where he scored 24 in a loss to the Bucks on Friday. Prior to that contest, he shot 50% from the field in three straight. Doncic scored 34 and added five rebounds and seven assists when these teams played two weeks ago (a 125-101 Lakers win).

  • Points: 35.5 (33.3 - 24, 38, 30, 36, 34), Reb: 7.5 (8.0 - 9, 10, 2, 9, 6), Ast: 8.5 (8.8 - 9, 10, 10, 8, 8)

  • SAC - W1 (2-8 L10) | Points Against: 122.1 (27th), Reb Against: 46.2 (26th), Ast Against: 28.0 (26th)

• Hurricanes C Seth Jarvis (at Red Wings)

  • Jarvis started the season notching at least one point in seven straight games. He had in 11 points in that span, but then earned 11 in the entire month of November. Jarvis is working his way back, as he recorded at least one point and three or more shots in four of his past five games. The Red Wings lead the Atlantic Division but it’s not because of their defense, which has been very middle of the road. After giving up one or fewer goals in three of four, Detroit is due for regression.

  • 3+ Shots: -154 (3.2 - 1, 3, 6, 4, 4), Points: TBA (0.9 - 1, 0, 2, 2, 1), Anytime Goal: +180 (0.5 - 0, 0, 1, 0, 1)

  • DET - W3 (7-2-1 L10) | Shots Against: 27.8 (20th), Goals Against: 3.04 (16th), Save Percentage .896 (16th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

First Look at 3 Divisional Round NFL Games That Have Been Decided

NBA

• Jazz (13-25, 4-13 Away) vs. Cavaliers (22-18, 14-9 Home)

  • UTA (+13.5, -108), CLE (-13.5, -112): 51% of the money is with UTA but 53% of the bets are with CLE

    • ATS | UTA (road): 7-10, CLE (home): 7-16

  • Total (251.5) | UTA: 24-14 (119.6 ppg), CLE: 19-21 (119.3 ppg)

• Celtics (24-14, 12-7 Away) vs. Pacers (8-31, 6-15 Home)

  • BOS (-6, -110), IND (+6, -110): 51% of the money is with IND but 66% of the bets are with BOS

    • ATS | BOS (road): 12-7, IND (home): 12-9

  • Total (223.5) | BOS: 17-21 (117.8 ppg), IND: 15-24 (110.8 ppg)

• Hornets (14-25, 7-13 Away) vs. Clippers (15-23, 9-9 Home)

  • CHA (+4.5, -110), LAC (-4.5, -110): 56% of the money is with CHA but 55% of the bets are with LAC

    • ATS | CHA (road): 12-8, LAC (home): 7-11

  • Total (223.5) | CHA: 15-24 (115.4 ppg), LAC: 19-19 (112.3 ppg)

• 76ers (21-16, 11-7 Away) vs. Raptors (24-16, 13-8 Home)

  • PHI (-3.5, -106), TOR (+3.5, -114): 75% of the money and 55% of the bets are with PHI

    • ATS | PHI (road): 13-5, TOR (home): 9-12

  • Total (220.5) | PHI: 18-18 (117.2 ppg), TOR: 15-24 (114.1 ppg)

NHL

• Panthers (23-18-3, 9-9-0 Away) vs. Sabres (24-15-4, 14-5-2 Home)

  • FLA (+1.5, -260), BUF (-1.5, +205): 65% of the money and 75% of the bets are with FLA

    • ATS | FLA (road): 7-11, BUF (home): 13-8

  • Moneyline | FLA -113, BUF -106: 58% of the money and 55% of the bets are with BUF

  • Total (6.5) | FLA: 24-20 (3.01 gpg), BUF: 20-23 (3.19 gpg)

• Hurricanes (28-14-3, 12-6-2 Away) vs. Red Wings (27-15-4, 15-8-1 Home)

  • CAR (-1.5, +156), DET (+1.5, -194): 71% of the money is with CAR but 76% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | CAR (road): 8-12, DET (home): 10-14

  • Moneyline | CAR -152, DET +126: 70% of the money is with DET but 54% of the bets are with CAR

  • Total (6.5) | CAR: 24-21 (3.36 gpg), DET: 23-23 (3.11 gpg)

• Kraken (20-15-8, 10-8-3 Away) vs. Rangers (20-20-6, 5-11-4 Home)

  • SEA (+1.5, -205), NYR (-1.5, +164): 74% of the money is with NYR but 72% of the bets are with SEA

    • ATS | SEA (road): 15-6, NYR (home): 6-14

  • Moneyline | SEA +125, NYR -150: 58% of the money is with SEA but 60% of the bets are with NYR

  • Total (5.5) | SEA: 17-26 (2.74 gpg), NYR: 18-28 (2.57 gpg)

NFL

We’re taking a first look at the weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups that have been decided:

• No. 6 49ers vs. No. 1 Seahawks

  • SF (+7.5, -120), SEA (-7.5, -102): 52% of the money is with SEA but 60% of the bets are with SF

    • ATS | SF (road): 8-2, SEA (home): 4-4

  • Total (45.5) | SF: 10-8 (25.7 ppg), SEA: 9-8 (28.4 ppg)

• No. 5 Rams vs. No. 2 Bears

  • LAR (-3.5, -115), CHI (+3.5, -105): 73% of the money and 67% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | LAR (road): 5-4, CHI (home): 6-3

  • Total (50.5) | LAR: 11-7 (30.5 ppg), CHI: 8-10 (25.9 ppg)

• No. 6 Bills vs. No. 1 Broncos

  • BUF (-1.5, -115), DEN (+1.5, -105): 90% of the money and 52% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | BUF (road): 5-4, DEN (home): 5-4

  • Total (47.5) | BUF: 9-9 (28.3 ppg), DEN: 7-10 (23.6 ppg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• After the Packers let an 18-point lead to the Bears evaporate in their first-round playoff loss, coach Matt LaFleur’s job status is up in the air. LaFleur has one year left on his contract and said he expects to talk to Green Bay president Ed Policy very soon (possibly as early as this morning). The Packers lost in the Wild Card Round for the second season in a row and haven’t advanced past the Divisional Round since losing in the NFC Championship back-to-back in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, LaFleur’s first two campaigns.

• Magic forward Mo Wagner was back in the lineup yesterday after missing over a year after tearing his ACL in December 2024. He scored eight points in 10 minutes off the bench. The timing of Wagner’s return likely isn’t coincidental, as Orlando is headed to Wager’s home country of Germany for the first of two games overseas against Memphis: They play in Berlin on Thursday and London on Sunday.

• Most of the college football world wants to expand the playoff to 16 or more teams, but it’ll take an agreement between Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey to get it done. They have until January 23rd to make a change in time for the upcoming season, a deadline that was already pushed back from December 1st. The two most popular options are a field of 16 teams with five conference champions and 11 at-large squads, or doubling the participants to 24 schools.

• The No. 1 receiver in the transfer portal is teaming up with Arch Manning at Texas. Auburn’s Cam Coleman is headed to Austin and will give Manning one of the best receiving corps in the nation. Coleman, who was the No. 5 prospect in the 2024 recruiting class, had 56 catches for 708 yards as a sophomore for the Tigers

What to Watch (times ET)

• 2:45pm: Juventus vs. Cremonese on Paramount+

• 7pm: Kraken vs. Rangers on NHL Network

• 7:30pm: Celtics vs. Pacers on Peacock

• 8:15pm: Texans vs. Steelers on ABC/ESPN