Teoscar Hernandez's Hot August + Opportunities for Yankees

In today’s newsletter…

The Paris Olympics closed with Team USA running away with the overall medal count and tied with China for most golds (40). The United States earned 126 medals, which is 13 more than in the Tokyo Games. The U.S. had 35 more medals than second-place China, which is 11 more than the gap from three years ago.

French swimmer Leon Marchand was not only the star of the Olympics for the host country, but his four gold medals were the most of any athlete at these Games. Simone Biles and swimmer Torri Huske led the U.S. with three golds each, while swimmer Regan Smith tied Huske for most American medals overall with five. There were 44 Team USA athletes who won multiple medals in Paris, and 13 of them won multiple golds.

Guardians under 2.5 runs first 7 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
We like the work Shota Imanaga continues to put in for the Cubs, especially on the road, where he has a 2.75 ERA. He has a 3.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across his last six starts. The Guardians have been less prolific in the run-scoring department since the start of the second half, and they’re scoring a modest 4.1 runs per game over their last 10, a stretch in which they’re 3-7.

Astros vs. Rays under 7.5 runs (-120 at Caesars)
The Astros enter play riding a five-game winning streak, plus they’re 7-3 over their last 10. Their pitching has shouldered much of the load during this hot stretch, though. The Rays have struggled with the lumber to an even larger degree, averaging 3.0 runs per game over their last 10. With Framber Valdez and Taj Bradley in good form — a poor start or two notwithstanding — runs may be difficult to come by.

Rangers over 4.5 runs (-113 at FanDuel)
Red Sox starter Brayan Bello is surrendering a .283/.333/.459 line and 1.6 HR/9 over his last seven starts (40.1 IP). Bello’s home splits further support a play on the Rangers. His ERA is a full run higher (5.71) and he allows opponents to bat .296 against him at Fenway Park. Keep tabs on Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe in particular — Bello allows a .509 slugging percentage against lefties.

Yankees -1.5 first 5 innings (+100 at DraftKings)
The Yankees are scoring 5.4 runs per game since the trade deadline, while the White Sox remain just as dreadful now as they were before they traded several regulars. They’re scoring 3.3 runs per game over their last eight and starting rookie southpaw Ky Bush, who gave up three earned runs across four innings in his debut. With the way Judge and Soto are swinging, it’s reasonable to look at the Yanks going up early.

White Sox under 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re sticking on the South Side and looking at the under for the White Sox. We mentioned how anemic the White Sox bats have been — all season and of late. The Yankees are calling on Luis Gil, who has a 1.93 ERA and .196 opponent’s average over his last five starts. Perhaps the most compelling case for the under is the White Sox’s .167/.236/.286 line against power pitchers.

Royals vs. Twins over 8 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
The Royals and Twins enter play with their bats clicking. Both rank top-10 in runs scored since the start of August, and both occupy American League wild card spots. Royals right-hander Brady Singer is enjoying a career season, but his effectiveness has waned on the road. Twins starter Pablo Lopez, meanwhile, has been inconsistent — at best — this season with unfavorable home splits. On paper, this looks like a competitive, but relatively high-scoring contest.

Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
The Angels are one of the worst home teams in the league and allow more runs at Angel Stadium than on the road. Davis Daniel takes the ball for the Halos against a Blue Jays team that averages more runs per game on the road than at home. Daniel only has a few starts under his belt, but his 6.03 ERA and 1.38 WHIP have us looking at the Jays nonetheless.

Cardinals team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
Reds starter Andrew Abbott is starting to struggle on the mound. The left-hander has given up 21 hits, 12 earned runs and six home runs over his last 13.1 innings of work. Current Cardinals batters have hit Abbott hard in the past, as they have a .459 xwOBA, a .657 xSLG and a 92.7-mph average exit velocity in 58 plate appearances against him. 

Freddy Peralta over 2.5 walks allowed (+115 at DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta hasn’t been great with his command all season, but he’s been especially wild over the last month or so. The Brewers right-hander has surrendered 11 walks in his last four starts, raising his walk rate to 8.9% on the year. The Dodgers have the highest walk rate against righties in MLB (10.2%), and they’re walking at a 12.5% clip in 88 plate appearances against Peralta. 

Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 at DraftKings)
Teoscar Hernandez has been absolutely on fire since the calendar flipped to August. The Dodgers slugger is batting .481 and slugging 1.074 with a 334 wRC+ against right-handers this month. He also leads the team in hits (18), runs scored (14) and RBIs (11) over the last 15 days. Peralta isn’t pitching well right now, and Hernandez has the hot bat to take advantage of his slump. 

Brandon Pfaadt under 6.5 Ks (+120 at FanDuel)
The Rockies are one of the worst teams in MLB at avoiding strikeouts against right-handers, but this line is too high. Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 40th percentile in whiff rate (24.0%) and the 48th percentile in strikeout rate (22.0%) this season, and he’s gone under this line in 15 of his 23 starts. 

Giants vs. Braves both teams to score 1+ run — first 5 innings (-135 at DraftKings)
This is a scary one to look at with Chris Sale and Blake Snell on the mound, but you rarely see odds this cheap on a prop like this. Sale has given up two earned runs in three straight starts, and current Atlanta hitters have a .443 xwOBA and a .669 xSLG against Snell. The Braves and Giants also rank third and eighth, respectively, in OPS and wRC+ against lefties this month.

Andrew McCutchen + Nolan Arenado to record a hit parlay (+126 at FanDuel)
Andrew McCutchen leads the Pirates in batting average (.385) and slugging percentage (1.077) over the last week. Padres starter Joe Musgrove is making his first appearance since May 26 due to right elbow inflammation, and he ranked in the third percentile in xBA (.292) before going down with an injury. As for Nolan Arenado, he’s batting .327 over the last 15 days and is 5-10 in his career against Abbott with two homers. 

Joey Bart to hit a home run (+600 at DraftKings)
Fading Musgrove in his return to the mound seems like a good idea. The veteran right-hander also ranks in the second percentile in xERA (6.02) and the third percentile in barrel rate (11.5%) because his fastball isn’t as effective as it used to be. Joey Bart is batting .356 with a 1.075 OPS and four home runs over the last 15 days, and he has a .343 xBA and a .784 xSLG against 4-seam fastballs this season.