Insights, Trends and Stakes for All 14 NFL Games on Final Day of Regular Season

Two division titles are up for grabs, as is playoff seeding

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: A lot is on the line in final day of NFL regular season

2. Game of the Day: Ravens and Steelers play for AFC North title

3. By the Numbers: What’s at stake in each game of today’s NFL slate

4. Scouting Report: Three players to watch with a lot to play for in Week 18

5. Overtime: Early college football transfer portal winners and losers

1. Leading Off

There are only two matchups in today’s slate of 14 games that don’t mean much (Browns vs. Bengals and Packers vs. Vikings), giving the NFL a must-watch final day of the regular season. Seattle (1st) and Green Bay (7th) are the only playoff-bound teams that are completely locked into their current positions. The Packers are one of just three teams planning on resting starters — along with the Chargers and Eagles.

While most of today’s matchups impact playoff seeding or the NFL Draft order, there are two postseason spots still up for grabs. The NFC South will be decided by the winner of the Saints vs. Falcons after the Buccaneers beat the Panthers yesterday. An Atlanta win gives the division to Carolina and a New Orleans upset means the Tampa Bay get its fifth title in a row. The AFC North will be decided on the field with the winner of the Ravens vs. Steelers on Sunday Night Football taking the division.

We give you the stakes for each game later on in the newsletter, but according to NFL.com, this is the most likely seeding scenario based on the most probable outcomes today:

AFC 

No. 1 seed and first-round bye: Broncos

No. 7 Chargers vs. No. 2 Patriots
No. 6 Bills vs. No. 3 Jaguars
No. 5 Texans vs. No. 4 Ravens

NFC 

No. 1 seed and first-round bye: Seahawks (clinched with last night’s win over the 49ers)

No. 7 Packers vs. No. 2 Bears
No. 6 49ers vs. No. 3 Eagles
No. 5 Rams vs. No. 4 Panthers

The Bills’ place in the playoffs is the most undecided, as they have a 21% chance to be the fifth seed, 40% to be sixth, and 39% to be seventh, according to NFL.com’s analysis.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Ravens Favored on Road to Beat Steelers, Win AFC North

The Ravens began the season 1-5 but won seven of their next 10 to give themselves a chance at their third AFC North title in a row. The Steelers got off to a 4-1 start before losing five of their next seven, and most hope, but then won three in a row before their loss to the Browns last week in a game that could have won them the division for the first time since 2020.

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson had to be relieved by backup Tyler Huntley two weeks ago and missed last Saturday’s win due to a back contusion, but isn’t on the injury report after practicing all week and said he’s “gonna be out there.” Jackson also missed three games in October with a hamstring injury and wasn’t the same when he came back, only surpassing 245 passing yards, his average last season, once in eight games. Ravens running back Derrick Henry is coming off a 216-yard, four-touchdown rushing day.

After scoring 27, 28 and 29 points during their winning streak, the Steelers managed just six points in last week’s loss. They’ll be without star wide receiver DK Metcalf again after he was suspended for the final two games of the regular season because of an altercation with a fan in Detroit. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote it could be “the most impactful punishment the league has ever issued.”

Ravens (8-8, 5-2 Away) vs. Steelers (9-7, 5-3 Home)
8:20pm on NBC

The Odds

• Spread: BAL (-3.5, -120), PIT (+3.5, -102)

  • 53% of the money is with BAL but 56% of the bets are with PIT

  • ATS | BAL (road): 4-3, PIT (home): 4-3

• Moneyline: BAL -210, PIT +176

• Total (40.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • BAL: 8-8, PIT: 8-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• BAL QB Lamar Jackson | Pass Yards: 209.5 (192.6 - 101, 150, 219-PIT, 246, 153), Pass Attempts: 27.5 (23.7 - 10, 12, 35-PIT, 32, 23), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.5 - 0, 2, 1-PIT, 0, 0), Rush Yards: 27.5 (28.3 - 7, 26, 43-PIT, 27, 11)

• BAL RB Derrick Henry | Rush Yards: 87.5 (91.8 - 216, 127, 100, 94-PIT, 60), Carries: 19.5 (17.9 - 36, 18, 11, 25-PIT, 10), Anytime TD: -130 (1.0 - 4, 2, 0, 0-PIT, 1)

• PIT QB Aaron Rodgers | Pass Yards: 200.5 (201.9 - 168, 266, 224, 284-BAL, 117), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (30.1 - 39, 41, 27, 34-BAL, 21), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.5 - 0, 1, 2, 1-BAL, 0)

• PIT RB Jaylen Warren | Rush Yards: 46.5 (59.5 - 64, 143, 33, 13-BAL, 35), Carries: 12.5 (13.1 - 12, 14, 12, 8-BAL, 10), Anytime TD: +195 (0.4 - 0, 2, 0, 0-BAL, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. By the Numbers

What’s at Stake in Each Game in Today’s NFL Slate + Where Spread Bettors Have Their Money

NFL

• Saints (6-10, 3-5 Away) vs. Falcons (6-9, 2-4 Home)

  • Stakes: A Falcons’ win gives the NFC South to the Panthers

  • NO (+3.5, -112), ATL (-3.5, -108): 53% of the money and 59% of the bets are with ATL

    • ATS | NO (road): 5-3, ATL (home): 3-4

  • Total (43.5) | NO: 5-11 (18.1 ppg), ATL: 8-8 (20.9 ppg)

• Browns (4-12, 1-6 Away) vs. Bengals (6-10, 3-5 Home)

  • Stakes: Only NFL Draft order

  • CLE (+7.5, -110), CIN (-7.5, -110): 74% of the money and 54% of the bets are with CIN

    • ATS | CLE (road): 1-6, CIN (home): 4-4

  • Total (44.5) | CLE: 6-10 (16.2 ppg), CIN: 9-7 (24.8 ppg)

• Packers (9-6-1, 4-3-1 Away) vs. Vikings (8-8, 3-4 Home)

  • Stakes: Nothing, as the Packers can’t move from the NFC’s 7th seed and are resting starters

  • GB (+8.5, -105), MIN (-8.5, -115): 67% of the money is with MIN but 66% of the bets are with GB

    • ATS | GB (road): 2-6, MIN (home): 3-4

  • Total (36.5) | GB: 9-7 (24.3 ppg), MIN: 8-8 (20.5 ppg)

• Cowboys (7-8-1, 3-5 Away) vs. Giants (3-13, 2-5 Home)

  • Stakes: A loss would give the Giants a shot at the No. 1 draft pick

  • DAL (-3.5, -110), NYG (+3.5, -110): 70% of the money and 68% of the bets are with DAL

    • ATS | DAL (road): 3-5, NYG (home): 3-4

  • Total (49.5) | DAL: 11-5 (28.4 ppg), NYG: 10-6 (21.7 ppg)

• Titans (3-13, 2-5 Away) vs. Jaguars (12-4, 6-2 Home)

  • Stakes: The Jaguars win the AFC South with a victory and can still finish anywhere from the 1st to 7th seed (other than 4th)

  • TEN (+12.5, -105), JAX (-12.5, -115): 81% of the money and 60% of the bets are with JAX

    • ATS | TEN (road): 3-3-1, JAX (home): 6-1

  • Total (47.5) | TEN: 10-6 (17.3 ppg), JAX: 9-7 (27.1 ppg)

• Colts (8-8, 2-5 Away) vs. Texans (11-5, 6-2 Home)

  • Stakes: A Texans win plus a Jaguars loss gives Houston the AFC South, and the No. 5 seed is in play otherwise

  • IND (+10.5, -110), HOU (-10.5, -110): 75% of the money and 53% of the bets are with HOU

    • ATS | IND (road): 3-3-1, HOU (home): 5-3

  • Total (38.5) | IND: 8-8 (27.3 ppg), HOU: 5-11 (22.9 ppg)

• Jets (3-13, 1-6 Away) vs. Bills (11-5, 6-2 Home)

  • Stakes: The Bills could climb to the fifth seed with a win and losses elsewhere

  • NYJ (+7.5, -105), BUF (-7.5, -115): 83% of the money and 87% of the bets are with BUF

    • ATS | NYJ (road): 3-3-1, BUF (home): 3-5

  • Total (37.5) | NYJ: 10-6 (18.3 ppg), BUF: 8-8 (27.9 ppg)

• Lions (8-8, 3-5 Away) vs. Bears (11-5, 6-1 Home)

  • Stakes: A win secures the Bears the No. 2 seed in the NFC

  • DET (+3, -105), CHI (-3, -115): 69% of the money and 57% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | DET (road): 3-5, CHI (home): 5-2

  • Total (50.5) | DET: 10-6 (28.9 ppg), CHI: 7-9 (26.6 ppg)

• Chargers (11-5, 5-2 Away) vs. Broncos (13-3, 7-1 Home)

  • Stakes: A Broncos win gives them the No. 1 seed, while the Chargers are resting starters because not much movement is available

  • LAC (+13.5, -110), DEN (-13.5, -110): 75% of the money is with DEN but 63% of the bets are with LAC

    • ATS | LAC (road): 3-4, DEN (home): 4-4

  • Total (37.5) | LAC: 7-9 (22.8 ppg), DEN: 7-9 (23.9 ppg)

• Chiefs (6-10, 1-6 Away) vs. Raiders (2-14, 1-7 Home)

  • Stakes: The Raiders clinch the No. 1 NFL Draft pick with a loss

  • KC (-5.5, -110), LV (+5.5, -110): 60% of the money and 52% of the bets are with KC

    • ATS | KC (road): 1-5, LV (home): 3-5

  • Total (36.5) | KC: 4-12 (21.9 ppg), LV: 7-9 (14.2 ppg)

• Cardinals (3-13, 2-6 Away) vs. Rams (11-4, 6-1 Home)

  • Stakes: With a win, the Rams earn the No. 5 seed and face the NFC South winner in the first round

  • ARI (+8.5, -102), LAR (-8.5, -120): 86% of the money and 81% of the bets are with LAR

    • ATS | ARI (road): 5-3, LAR (home): 5-2

  • Total (46.5) | ARI: 9-7 (20.9 ppg), LAR: 9-7 (30.1 ppg)

• Dolphins (7-9, 2-5 Away) vs. Patriots (13-3, 5-3 Home)

  • Stakes: The Patriots can still earn the No. 1 seed with a win and some help

  • MIA (+11.5, -115), NE (-11.5, -105): 82% of the money and 60% of the bets are with NE

    • ATS | MIA (road): 3-4, NE (home): 3-4-1

  • Total (45.5) | MIA: 7-9 (21.1 ppg), NE: 10-6 (28.3 ppg)

• Commanders (4-12, 2-6 Away) vs. Eagles (11-5, 5-2 Home)

  • Stakes: A win plus a Bears’ loss would move up the Eagles to the No. 2 seed, but Philadelphia is likely resting starters

  • WAS (+4.5, -110), PHI (-4.5, -110): 74% of the money and 76% of the bets are with PHI

    • ATS | WAS (road): 2-5, PHI (home): 4-3

  • Total (39.5) | WAS: 9-7 (20.8 ppg), PHI: 6-10 (22.6 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Three Players to Watch with Playoff Seeding on the Line in NFL’s Week 18

• Texans WR Nico Collins (vs. Colts)

  • Receiving Yards: 62.5 (74.5 - 57, 59, 85, 121, 98-IND), Receptions: 4.5 (4.7 - 3, 4, 3, 4, 5-IND), Anytime TD: +140 (0.5 - 0, 0, 2, 0, 0)

  • IND - L6 (3-7 L10) | Pass Yards Allowed: 250.6 (31st), Total Yards Allowed: 350.5 (24th), Points Allowed: 23.4 (19th)

  • Notes: The Texans can still win the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss, so Collins should play until the game is in hand. When these two teams played six weeks ago, Collins had five catches for 98 yards. The Colts give up the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL, have completely fallen apart, and have nothing left to play for, which is a good combination for Collins

• Bears QB Caleb Williams (vs. Lions)

  • Pass Yards: 236.5 (233.1 - 330, 250, 242, 186, 154), Pass Attempts: 31.5 (33.4 - 25, 19, 17, 19, 17), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 2, 2, 2, 1), Rush Yards: 17.5 (24.2 - 18, 30, 13, 15, 13)

  • DET - L3 (4-6 L10) | Pass Yards Allowed: 218.1 (19th), Total Yards Allowed: 335.8 (18th), Points Allowed: 24.8 (24th)

  • Notes: Williams has increased his passing yardage in four straight games, throwing for 330 with two touchdowns in last week’s loss to the 49ers. Over his past six games, Williams has thrown 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions — and he hasn’t been sacked in the last two. The Bears are still competing with the Eagles for the two seed in the NFC, so Williams should be in the game until Chicago is comfortably ahead.

• Bills RB James Cook III (vs. Jets)

  • Rush Yards: TBA (100.4 - 74, 117, 107, 80, 144), Carries: TBA (19.2 - 20, 16, 22, 18, 32), Anytime TD: TBA (0.9 - 0, 2, 3, 0, 0)

  • NYJ - L4 (3-7 L10) | Rush Yards Allowed: 135.0 (27th), Total Yards Allowed: 348.4 (23rd), Points Allowed: 29.3 (29th)

  • Notes: Buffalo is currently the seventh seed but could climb to as high as fifth with a win and some help. Cook exploded for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in his Week 2 matchup against the Jets, who have one of the worst rush defenses in the league. After back-to-back below-average games in the first half of November, Cook has averaged 106.3 rushing yards over his last six contests. He’s also just 47 yards ahead of Jonathan Taylor for this season’s rushing title, which should provide extra motivation.

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The 2023 NBA draft pick at the center of an NCAA eligibility controversy played his first game for Baylor yesterday, and he was booed by opposing fans every time he touched the ball. James Nnaji was drafted by the Pistons, participated in the NBA’s Summer League and played professionally in Europe before signing with Baylor on Christmas Eve. The 21-year-old center scored five points and grabbed four rebounds in 16 minutes in Baylor’s loss to TCU.

• With over 4,000 college football players available in the transfer portal, teams will have the opportunity to transform over the next two weeks. There is no longer a spring window, so this is the last chance for an athlete to move. CBS Sports picked its winners and losers of the first day transfers were permitted. On3 is tracking all the movement, including campus visits and decisions.

• The Ole Miss-Lane Kiffin drama continues, as Rebels coach Pete Golding said LSU will decide how many of the coaches that are joining Kiffin in Baton Rouge can remain at Ole Miss during its College Football Playoff run, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss Jr. Ole Miss defensive tackle Zxavian Harris said Kiffin is “just trying to steal our shine.”

• The Suns have won six of eight games and have improved to 20-14, good for seventh in the Western Conference. After a 36-46 campaign last season where they missed the playoffs by three games, the Suns traded superstar Kevin Durant over the summer and their direction was questioned by fans and other NBA teams. Doug Haller of The Athletic looks at how Phoenix has managed the early turnaround and where the team could go from here.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 10am: Fulham vs. Liverpool on USA

• 12:30pm: Manchester City vs. Chelsea on NBCSN

• 1pm: Colts vs. Texans or Packers vs. Vikings on CBS (or Titans vs. Jaguars on FOX)

• 2pm: Marquette vs. No. 4 UConn [MCBB] on NBC

• 3pm: No. 15 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Texas [WCBB] on ESPN2

• 4:25pm: Chargers vs. Broncos on CBS (or Lions vs. Bears on FOX)

• 8:20pm: Ravens vs. Steelers on NBC