A Full Rundown of NFL’s 10-Game Slate Including Trends, Stats and Players to Watch

We also look at where bettors have money in every matchup today

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What’s at stake in the NFL today

2. Game of the Day: Bills and Eagles look to prove Super Bowl contender status

3. By the Numbers: 49ers are favored at home, Steelers vs. Browns total is just 34.5

4. Scouting Report: Lawrence has been stellar during Jaguars’ run

5. Overtime: Two NBA big men return to the starting lineup

1. Leading Off

The Texans have come all the way back from their 0-3 start to earn a spot in the NFL playoffs and could still end up winning their division after beating the Chargers in Los Angeles yesterday. Houston is now guaranteed to bring the top defense in the league to the playoffs and is currently seeded sixth. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is one of six head coaches to take his team to the playoffs in his first three seasons. Ryans is up to 31 wins to start his coaching career.

With the Chargers loss, the Broncos clinched the AFC West for the first time since 2015. And with the Ravens upset over the Packers last night, the Bears claimed the NFC North for the first time since 2018. There are no Wild Card spots left, but there’s still a lot at stake in today’s slate of 10 games.

Jacksonville needs to win against the Colts, who are officially eliminated from the playoffs because of the Texans’ victory, and next week against the Titans to guarantee the AFC South title. The Patriots have to beat the 3-12 Jets to stay tied with the Broncos for the top seed in the AFC and ensure they’ll be ahead of the Bills in the division when the day is over. Speaking of Buffalo, a loss to Philadelphia likely puts the AFC East out of reach and the fifth seed at risk. A win keeps the pressure on the Patriots. And a Steelers win at Cleveland would give them the AFC North for the first time since 2020 (a loss means there will be a winner-takes-all matchup against Baltimore in Pittsburgh next week).

The top seed in the NFC is unlikely for the Eagles, but the No. 2 spot is possible with a win over the Bills today. Tampa Bay and Carolina play next week for the NFC South title, unless the Buccaneers somehow lose to the Dolphins and the Panthers get an upset over the Seahawks today. Meanwhile, 12-3 Seattle controls its own destiny against the Rams and 49ers in the NFC West and for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

And on the other side of things, the NFL’s only two teams with just two wins, the Raiders and Giants, play in Las Vegas with the loser becoming the favorite for the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. So no matter what you’re interested in, there’s something to watch in Week 17.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Wet Conditions Expected in Buffalo So Marquee Matchup Could Come Down to Eagles and Bills Running Games

When the NFL released its schedule, this matchup was billed as a potential late-season Super Bowl preview. Confidence isn’t quite as high for either team, but at FanDuel the Bills have the second-best odds to win the AFC (+400) and the Eagles have the third-best odds to take the NFC (+490). A flood watch is currently in effect for the game, so expect cold and very rainy conditions in Buffalo.

The Bills have won four straight and running back James Cook III has rushed for at least 105 yards in four of five games, so they have the advantage if Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith become non-factors because of the wet weather. Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley could be returning to last season’s form, though, as he’s averaged over 110 yards on the ground over his past three games, a stretch during which he’s had two of his three 100+ yard rushing efforts this year.

Eagles (10-5, 5-3 Away) vs. Bills (11-4, 6-1 Home)
4:25pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: PHI (+1.5, -110), BUF (-1.5, -110)

  • 55% of the money and 59% of the bets are with BUF

  • ATS | PHI (road): 5-3, BUF (home): 3-4

• Moneyline: PHI +102, BUF -120

• Total (44.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • PHI: 6-9, BUF 8-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• BUF QB Josh Allen | Pass Yards: 195.5 (227.1 - 130, 193, 251, 123, 253), Pass Attempts: 27.5 (28.3 - 19, 28, 28, 23, 34), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.7 - 0, 3, 3, 1, 0), Rush Yards: 30.5 (36.8 - 17, 48, 78, 38, 20)

• BUF RB James Cook III | Rush Yards: 87.5 (102.1 - 117, 107, 80, 144, 116), Carries: 19.5 (19.1 - 16, 22, 18, 32, 17), Anytime TD: -105 (0.9 - 2, 2, 0, 0, 1)

• PHI QB Jalen Hurts | Pass Yards: 189.5 (207.6 - 185, 175, 240, 230, 289), Pass Attempts: 25.5 (28.5 - 30, 15, 40, 34, 39), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 3, 0, 2, 1), Rush Yards: 29.5 (27.7 - 40, 39, 8, 31, 33)

• PHI RB Saquon Barkley | Rush Yards: 86.5 (71.5 - 132, 78, 122, 56, 22), Carries: 18.5 (17.4 - 21, 22, 20, 13, 10), Anytime TD: +120 (0.6 - 1, 1, 1, 0, 0)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

3. By the Numbers

49ers Favored to Win 6th Straight, Bucs Expected to Keep Pace in NFC South

NFL

• Cardinals (3-12, 2-5 Away) vs. Bengals (5-10, 2-5 Home)

  • ARI (+7, -112), CIN (-7, -108): 88% of the money and 75% of the bets are with CIN

    • ATS | ARI (road): 5-2, CIN (home): 3-4

  • Total (53.5) | ARI: 9-6 (21.4 ppg), CIN: 9-6 (23.9 ppg)

• Steelers (9-6, 4-3 Away) vs. Browns (3-12, 2-6 Home)

  • PIT (-3, -115), CLE (+3, -105): 73% of the money and 77% of the bets are with PIT

    • ATS | PIT (road): 3-4, CLE (home): 5-2

  • Total (34.5) | PIT: 8-7 (24.3 ppg), CLE: 6-9 (16.4 ppg)

• Saints (5-10, 2-5 Away) vs, Titans (3-12, 1-7 Home)

  • NO (-2.5, -114), TEN (+2.5, -106): 60% of the money and 62% of the bets are with NO

    • ATS | NO (road): 4-3, TEN (home): 4-4

  • Total (39.5) | NO: 4-11 (17.0 ppg), TEN: 9-6 (16.7 ppg)

• Jaguars (11-4, 5-2 Away) vs. Colts (8-7, 6-2 Home)

  • JAX (-5.5, -118), IND (+5.5, -104): 85% of the money and 72% of the bets are with JAX

    • ATS | JAX (road): 4-3, IND (home): 4-3

  • Total (48.5) | JAX: 9-6 (27.3 ppg), IND: 8-7 (27.9 ppg)

• Buccaneers (7-8, 4-4 Away) vs. Dolphins (6-9, 4-4 Home)

  • TB (-5.5, -112), MIA (+5.5, -108): 88% of the money and 73% of the bets are with TB

    • ATS | TB (road): 4-4, MIA (home): 3-4

  • Total (44.5) | TB: 8-7 (23.1 ppg), MIA: 7-8 (21.1 ppg)

• Patriots (12-3, 7-0 Away) vs. Jets (3-12, 2-6 Home)

  • NE (-13.5, -110), NYJ (+13.5, -110): 91% of the money and 76% of the bets are with NE

    • ATS | NE (road): 6-1, NYJ (home): 3-4

  • Total (42.5) | NE: 9-6 (27.3 ppg), NYJ: 9-6 (18.8 ppg)

• Seahawks (12-3, 6-1 Away) vs. Panthers (8-7, 5-2 Home)

  • SEA (-7.5, -102), CAR (+7.5, -120): 56% of the money and 65% of the bets are with CAR

    • ATS | SEA (road): 6-1, CAR (home): 5-2

  • Total (42.5) | SEA: 9-6 (29.5 ppg), CAR: 7-8 (19.1 ppg)

• Giants (2-13, 0-8 Away) vs. Raiders (2-13, 1-6 Home)

  • NYG (-2.5, -110), LV (+2.5, -110): 59% of the money is with LV but 55% of the bets are with NYG

    • ATS | NYG (road): 4-4, LV (home): 3-4

  • Total (41.5) | NYG: 9-6 (20.9 ppg), LV: 6-9 (14.5 ppg)

• Bears (11-4, 5-3 Away) vs. 49ers (11-4, 4-2 Home)

  • CHI (+3, -102), SF (-3, -120): 61% of the money and 51% of the bets are with SF

    • ATS | CHI (road): 5-3, SF (home): 2-3-1

  • Total (52.5) | CHI: 6-9 (25.8 ppg), SF: 9-6 (26.1 ppg)

4. Scouting Report

Lawrence Gets Struggling Colts Secondary, Jeanty Coming Off Best Performance of Rookie Season

• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (at Colts)

  • Pass Yards: 247.5 (232.6 - 279, 330, 244-IND, 229, 256), Pass Attempts: 33.5 (32.9 - 36, 32, 30-IND, 27, 30), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.7 - 3, 5, 2-IND, 2, 3), Rush Yards: 17.5 (21.5 - 20, 51, 16-IND, 25, 29)

  • IND - L5 | Pass Yards Allowed: 250.7 (31st), Total Yards Allowed: 349.2 (25th), Points Allowed: 23.4 (18th)

  • Notes: Lawrence has thrown for more yards than his season average in five straight games, a sign that he’s heating up as the Jaguars are making their playoff run. When these teams faced off at the beginning of the month, Lawrence was 17-30 for 244 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Only the Cowboys give up more than the Colts’ 250.7 passing yards per game.

• Patriots WR Stefon Diggs (at Jets)

  • Rec Yards: 58.5 (57.9 - 138, 26, 26, 20, 105-NYJ), Receptions: 5.5 (5.1 - 9, 3, 3, 2, 9-NYJ)

  • NYJ - L3 | Pass Yards Allowed: 208.7 (13th), Total Yards Allowed: 342.3 (22nd), Points Allowed: 28.4 (30th)

  • Notes: After three below-average games in a row, Diggs broke out for nine catches and 138 yards against the Ravens last week. He should be happy to see the Jets again, as he grabbed nine balls for 105 yards when the teams played in mid-November. Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson is banged up, so New England should rely on its passing game at least a little more.

• Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty (vs. Giants)

  • Rush Yards: 73.5 (55.2 - 128, 25, 30, 31, 50), Carries: 18.5 (14.9 - 24, 9, 10, 15, 17), Receiving Yards: 27.5 (21.7 - 60, 7, 8, 30, 58), Anytime TD: -160 (0.7 - 2, 0, 0, 0, 1)

  • NYG - L9 | Rush Yards Allowed: 150.9 (31st), Total Yards Allowed: 373.0 (29th), Points Allowed: 27.5 (28th)

  • Notes: Jeanty’s rookie season hasn’t been what he or the team hoped when he was drafted with the sixth pick, but he had his best game of the season against the NFL’s best defense last week (24 carries, 128 yards, 1 rush TD, 1 receiving TD at Houston). It could be a turning point. And today he’s facing the second-worst rush defense in the league. All sign point to a repeat performance and a solid ending to Jeanty’s first season.

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

In the News

• After coming off the bench for seven games since returning from a calf injury that kept him out for 12 contests, Spurs star Victor Wembanyama was back in the starting lineup against the Jazz last night. Another franchise-leading big man, Giannis Antetokounmpo, also returned to the starting lineup after missing eight games also due to a calf injury.

• Though Heisman Trophy runner-up Diego Pavia plans to enter the NFL Draft, he’s staying in a lawsuit against the NCAA that challenges the current rule that counts junior college seasons against Division I football eligibility. There are 26 other players in the lawsuit, and according to the Associated Press, their lawyer “cited the NCAA’s decision to allow an NBA draft pick to return to college basketball as a reason that a federal judge should let his clients play in 2026 and 2027.”

• The Lakers have lost three straight and six of 10, falling to 19-10 and in a tie for fourth in the Western Conference. That led to the always ominous weekend team meeting yesterday, which coach JJ Redick said was a day of “recalibration and reconnection.” As forward Rui Hachimura put it: “We had a good stretch in the beginning, and now we kind of, I don’t know, we relaxed. Or we kind of got tired of winning. But we just stopped doing what we're supposed to do.”

• TGL golf kicks off its second season today with six teams and hopes for growth. The indoor simulator league, led by Tiger Woods and Rory McMcIlroy, was fast-paced in its first season and entertained fans with player banter, but also faced technology glitches and needed some rule changes. One issue the league will deal with as year two begins: Woods and Justin Thomas are currently out with injuries.

• When Billie Jean King beat Bobby Riggs in tennis 52 years ago in the Battle of the Sexes, it was a watershed moment for women’s sports. The latest version, when women’s world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on Nick Kyrgios in Dubai at 11am ET today, just isn’t the same, Dan Wolken of Yahoo Sports writes. Sabalenka is coming off a U.S. Open championship, won three other titles this season and was 63-12 on the year. Kyrgios has been dealing with nagging knee and wrist injuries for years now, and was just 1-4 this season after playing only one non-exhibition match in 2023 and 2024. But unlike the 26-year age gap between Riggs and King, Kyrgios is just three years older than Sabalenka, and in another twist, Sabalenka will have a smaller court to defend than Kyrgios on the custom-made court.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 11:30am: Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham on USA

• 1pm: Seahawks vs. Panthers on CBS (or Jaguars vs. Colts on FOX)

• 4:25pm: Eagles vs. Bills on FOX

• 8pm: Flyers vs. Kraken on NHL Network

• 8:20pm: Bears vs. 49ers on NBC