Potential No. 1 NBA Draft Pick in Action Tonight + NBA, NHL and More MCBB Trends and Odds

We also have three players to watch that are all going up against bad defenses

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Two NCAA men’s basketball favorites separate from the field

2. Game of the Day: Potential No. 1 NBA Draft pick in action for Kansas

3. Scouting Report: Creighton up against one of NCAA’s worst defenses

4. By the Numbers: Five lowest-scoring teams in NBA are playing tonight

5. Overtime: Jets already lost NFL Draft

1. Leading Off

With two months to go until Selection Sunday, Michigan and Arizona are starting to separate from a very deep men’s college basketball field. After No. 2 Iowa State’s blowout loss to Kansas this week, undefeated Arizona will almost certainly be the unanimous No. 1 team in the country if it can beat 14-2 UCF tomorrow.

The Wildcats started the season with a win over defending national champion and then-No. 3 Florida and also won at then-and-current No. 3 UConn. Between the UConn game in mid-November and Arizona’s 89-82 victory over rival Arizona State on Wednesday, no opponent came within 12 points of the Wildcats.

The only catch with Arizona’s dominance is that coach Tommy Lloyd’s squad hasn’t faced a ranked opponent since beating then-No. 12 Alabama on December 13th and isn’t scheduled play another until traveling to No. 12 BYU on January 26th. The Wildcats don’t have one player putting up big numbers this season, but five are averaging double-digit points per game and seven score over nine a contest. They’re 14th in the nation at 91.0 points while giving up just 68.8.

While No. 4 Michigan suffered its first loss last week, FanDuel still has the Wolverines as the favorite to win the title (+440 to +550). Unlike Arizona, they don’t have any top-10 wins — though Michigan beat Gonzaga by 40 in November and the Bulldogs are now ninth. But similarly to Arizona, the Wolverines aren’t led by one superstar but have five players averaging double-figures in scoring and three grabbing about seven rebounds per game.

There’s a logjam of contenders after those two favorites, with Iowa State, No. 3 UConn, No. 6 Duke, and No. 7 Houston at +1200, No. 5 Purdue at +1400 and No. 19 Florida at +2000.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Potential No. 1 NBA Draft Pick Is Healthy For Kansas and Showing His Scoring Ability

Kansas is unranked but just beat previously undefeated and No. 2 Iowa State by 21 points on Tuesday. The Jayhawks superstar freshman Darryn Peterson, who is projected to be the top pick in this year’s NBA Draft by most outlets, has played in just eight games this season due to injuries (and understandable cautiousness). But he’s been in the lineup for four straight matchups, a stretch during which he’s lived up to his billing with 24.3 points in just 28.3 minutes a game. The current top scorer in Division I averages 23.8 a night in 32.5 minutes (Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli).

Baylor shook off its 0-3 start to Big 12 play with a victory over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. While the Bears are most known this year for picking up a former NBA Draft pick turned European professional player on Christmas Eve, they also have a top-30 scorer Cameron Carr, who averages 20.3 points. Carr transferred from Tennessee mid-season last year after a thumb injury. He played just 18 games over two years for the Volunteers and only scored in double-figures once.

Baylor (11-5, 1-3 Big 12) vs. Kansas (12-5, 2-2 Big 12)
8pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: BAY (+6.5, -102), KAN (-6.5, -120)

  • 94% of the money and 83% of the bets are with KAN

  • ATS | BAY (road): 1-2, KAN (home): 5-3

• Moneyline: BAY +275, KAN -350

• Total (155.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • BAY: 10-5, KAN: 6-11

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• BAY G Cameron Carr | Points: 20.3 (17, 18, 17, 17, 17), Reb: 5.1 (2, 4, 5, 3, 6), Ast: 2.3 (6, 0, 2, 1, 10)

• BAY G Tounde Yessoufou | Points: 17.9 (23, 11, 10, 10, 28), Reb: 5.9 (5, 6, 8, 5, 7), Ast: 1.9 (0, 2, 1, 1, 5)

• KAN G Darryn Peterson | Points: 21.8 (16, 23, 32, 26, 17), Reb: 4.8 (5, 6, 6, 6, 5), Ast: 2.0 (1, 2, 1, 1, 4)

• KAN G Tre White | Points: 15.4 (19, 18, 22, 14, 18), Reb: 7.2 (10, 5, 5, 11, 8), Ast: 2.1 (3, 0, 0, 2, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Season average (Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Tampa’s Kucherov’s Scoring Run + Creighton Scorer’s Opportunity Against Bad Defense

Lightning RW Nikita Kucherov (at Blues)

• Before he was blanked against the Penguins on Tuesday, Kucherov had gone 10 straight games scoring at least one point, and nine in a row with at least two. He averages over 1.5 points per game, and if he can match his first half of the campaign in the second, he’ll set a career high in goals in his 12th season. The Blues are 29th in the NHL in goals against at 3.38, and had allowed 7, 4, and 4 in the three games prior to shutting out Carolina on Tuesday. Since December 22nd, St. Louis averages 4.8 goals allowed in losses and 1.3 in wins, and the Blues are +155 underdogs today.

• 3+ Shots on Goal: -132 (3.0 - 4, 6, 2, 0, 2), Anytime Goal: +120 (0.6 - 0, 1, 2, 0, 1), Points: TBA (1.6 - 0, 2, 4, 2, 5),

• STL - W1 (4-6-0 L10) | Goals Against: 3.38 (29th), Shots Allowed: 24.9 (16th)

Kings G DeMar DeRozan (vs. Wizards)

• DeRozan has scored 21+ in five straight games and six of eight this month. He’s doing it in different ways, as he put in 27 with the help of 12 free throws in a win against the Knicks on Wednesday after scoring 32 on 14-19 shooting from the floor in a victory over the Lakers on Monday. After a seven-game losing streak, the Kings have won three in a row against playoff teams. The Wizards, on the other hand, continue to struggle mightily this season, and new addition Trae Young will be out at least until the All Star break. Washington gives up the second-most points in the NBA, most rebounds, and second-most assists, and has lost four straight

• Points: 20.5 (19.1 - 27, 32, 22, 24, 21), Reb: 3.5 (3.4 - 6, 2, 2, 2, 2), Ast: 3.5 (3.9 - 5, 6, 6, 3, 5)

• WAS - L4 (4-6 L10) | Points Allowed: 123.9 (29th), Reb Allowed: 47.8 (30th), Ast Allowed: 28.9 (29th)

Creighton G Austin Swartz (at Providence)

• No team in a major conference gives up more points than Providence, which is also 354th out of 365 teams overall at 85.1 per game. Creighton isn’t a powerhouse on offense (77.7 points / 183rd), but Swartz has come on strong lately with 18.9 a game over his last nine after starting the season scoring just eight total points in limited minutes in his first six games. He scored a season-high 33 against Georgetown last time out, while Providence has given up at least 20 points to an opposing player in six straight — and surrendered 20+ to four players in a 103-98 loss to UConn nine days ago.

• Points: TBA (11.6 - 33, 5, 20, 16, 22), Reb: TBA (2.8 - 0, 4, 4, 4, 5)

• PROV - L3 (4-6 L10) | Points Allowed: 85.1 (354th), Reb Allowed: 38.1, Ast Allowed: 16.9

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Five Lowest-Scoring NBA Teams in Action, NHL’s Top-Scoring Squad Faces 7th-Lowest

NBA

Pelicans (10-33, 3-15 Away) vs. Pacers (9-32, 7-16 Home)

• NOP (+3, -115), IND (-3, -105): 63% of the money and 55% of the bets are with IND

  • ATS | NOP (road): 8-10, IND (home): 13-10

• Total (238.5) | NOP: 23-20 (114.9 ppg), IND: 15-26 (110.6 ppg)

Bulls (19-21, 7-12 Away) vs. Nets (11-27, 5-15 Home)

• CHI (+1, -110), BKN (-1, -110): 64% of the money and 71% of the bets are with CHI

  • ATS | CHI (road): 9-10, BKN (home): 9-11

• Total (225.5) | CHI: 18-22 (117.5 ppg), BKN: 14-24 (108.8 ppg)

Cavaliers (23-19, 9-9 Away) vs. 76ers (22-17, 10-10 Home)

• CLE (+1.5, -110), PHI (-1.5, -110): 75% of the money is with PHI but 51% of the bets are with CLE

  • ATS | CLE (road): 7-11, PHI (home): 9-11

• Total (235.5) | CLE: 20-22 (120.1 ppg), PHI: 20-19 (116.8 ppg)

Clippers (17-23, 6-14 Away) vs. Raptors (25-17, 13-9 Home)

• LAC (-2, -110), TOR (+2, -110): 79% of the money and 58% of the bets are with LAC

  • ATS | LAC (road): 10-10, TOR (home): 9-13

• Total (215.5) | LAC: 20-20 (112.3 ppg), TOR: 16-26 (113.9 ppg)

Wizards (10-29, 4-16 Away) vs. Kings (11-30, 8-13 Home)

• WAS (+7, -110), SAC (-7, -110): 59% of the money and 58% of the bets are with SAC

  • ATS | WAS (road): 7-13, SAC (home): 9-12

• Total (232.5) | WAS: 19-20 (112.6 ppg), SAC: 18-23 (110.2 ppg)

MCBB

Creighton (11-7, 5-2 Big East) vs. Providence (8-9, 1-5 Big East)

• CRE (-1.5, +100), PROV (+1.5, -122): 70% of the money and 62% of the bets are with CRE

  • ATS | CRE (road): 3-2, PROV (home): 5-4

• Total (162.5) | CRE: 8-10 (77.7 ppg), PROV: 12-5 (88.7 ppg)

Marquette (6-12, 1-6 Big East) vs. DePaul (10-7, 2-4 Big East)

• MAR (+3.5, -115), DEP (-3.5, -105): 62% of the money and 55% of the bets are with DEP

  • ATS | MAR (road): 1-4, DEP (home): 6-4-1

• Total (142.5) | MAR: 9-9 (74.3 ppg), DEP: 5-12 (72.9 ppg)

NHL

Panthers (24-18-3, 10-9-0 Away) vs. Hurricanes (28-15-4, 16-8-1 Home)

• FLA (+1.5, -176), CAR (-1.5, +142): 58% of the money is with CAR but 53% of the bets are with FLA

  • ATS | FLA (road): 8-11, CAR (home): 9-16

• Moneyline | FLA +142, CAR -172: 57% of the money is with FLA but 65% of the bets are with CAR

• Total (5.5) | FLA: 25-20 (3.04 gpg), CAR: 25-22 (3.28 gpg)

Lightning (29-13-3, 17-4-3 Away) vs. Blues (18-21-8, 11-9-5 Home)

• TB (-1.5, +138), STL (+1.5, -170): 94% of the money and 78% of the bets are with TB

  • ATS | TB (road): 16-8, STL (home): 10-15

• Moneyline | TB -182, STL +150: 92% of the money and 80% of the bets are with TB

• Total (5.5) | TB: 24-21 (3.51 gpg), STL: 24-23 (2.49 gpg)

Predators (22-20-4, 9-10-2 Away) vs. Avalanche (33-4-8, 19-0-3 Home)

• NSH (+1.5, +102), COL (-1.5, -124): 97% of the money and 94% of the bets are with COL

  • ATS | NSH (road): 11-9, COL (home): 15-7

• Moneyline | NSH +250, COL -320: 91% of the money and 93% of the bets are with COL

• Total (6.5) | NSH: 22-24 (2.74 gpg), COL: 20-25 (4.02 gpg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The biggest loser in Oregon quarterback Dante Moore’s decision to return to school could be the New York Jets, who looked poised to find their next franchise quarterback in the NFL Draft. It begs the question: Did Moore decide to stay in Eugene to avoid the disaster that has been the Jets’ quarterback situation? New York has $89.7 million in available cap space to find another option for under center, but the free agent market is full of journeymen rather than potential stars.

• Carson Beck enrolled at Georgia six years ago and will play his final collegiate game on Monday for Miami with the national championship on the line. “It’s been a hell of a ride,” the quarterback said in an AP profile by Tim Reynolds. “And man, there’s just been so much good and so much else that I’ve went through — I don’t want to necessarily say it’s bad because I wouldn’t be in the position I am today if I didn’t go through it. But it has been unbelievable.”

• NCAA president Charlie Baker said that the college football (FBS) transfer portal is down 23% from last year, according to Front Office Sports. The outlet noted that “with schools now better able to pay and retain their star talent, it appears the portal may have reached its max number of entrants.”

• James Nnaji, the controversial mid-season Baylor transfer, was profiled by ESPN’s Myron Medcalf. The 21-year-old former NBA Draft pick and European pro asked rhetorically, “‘But what did I do, man?’ I’m as young as everybody in here.” Nnaji has made more of an impact on social media than for the Bears, as he’s averaging just 2.5 points and 4.2 rebounds in four games off the bench.

• After losing to Canada in last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off final, the Team USA men’s hockey team is looking to break through in the Winter Olympics. The Americans haven’t won gold at the Games since the Miracle on Ice team of 1980. “I don’t think anyone would be surprised if we won, so I think that that should be our goal,” defenseman Quinn Hughes said. “It’s kind of gold or bust, just like it is for Canada.”

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: PSG vs. Lille on beIN Sports

• 6:30pm: Creighton vs. Providence [MCBB] on FS1

• 7pm: Cavaliers vs. 76ers on ESPN (or Sharks vs. Red Wings on NHL Network)

• 8pm: Baylor vs. Kansas [MCBB] on FOX

• 9:30pm: Timberwolves vs. Rockets on ESPN