Player Projections, Matchup Insights & Team Stats for Week 7

The Broncos defense has aligned in five-man fronts on a league-high 46.0% of plays this season. As a result, the Broncos have utilized a five-man pass rush on 32.2% of dropbacks, five percentage points higher than any other team. The Broncos have blitzed more on early downs, with their blitz rate dropping by almost 10 percentage points per down. Matchup: Spencer Rattler completed 6 of 13 passes for 100 yards, a touchdown, and an interception against the blitz in his first start against the Buccaneers in Week 6.

Marshon Lattimore has aligned in press coverage on 32.5% of his outside cornerback snaps this season, the 12th highest rate among 72 corners with at least 100 snaps at outside corner. Matchup: Courtland Sutton has been effective against press man coverage, ranking top 10 in yards per route (2.8) and catch rate over expected (+15.2%) among wide receivers with at least 10 such targets since the start of 2023. Sutton has aligned as the left wide receiver (166 snaps) twice as often as right (83 snaps) and will likely face Lattimore who has aligned at right cornerback on 92.3% of his snaps this season.

Spencer Rattler used a designed rollout on 12 dropbacks in his first career start, tied for the 7th-most designed rollouts in a game since 2016. Rattler completed 5 of 8 passes on designed rollouts for 100 yards (2 sacks, 2 scrambles). Rattler pushed the ball downfield on his rollouts, averaging 13.0 air yards per attempt (double the NFL average since 2016: 6.5 yards). Rattler’s 25.0% designed rollout rate would rank 1st among qualified quarterbacks.

Tank Bigsby has totaled +143 rushing yards over expected this season, the 3rd-highest mark among running backs. Matchup: The Patriots have allowed +131 rushing yards over expected to running backs, the 3rd-most in the NFL.

In his Week 6 debut as a starter, Drake Maye was pressured on just under half of his dropbacks (47.6%), completing 8 of 15 attempts for 81 yards and an interception. When not pressured, Maye went 12 of 18 for 162 yards, including 3 touchdowns and an interception. Matchup: The Jaguars have generated pressure on 26.9% of opponents’ dropbacks, the 3rd-lowest mark in the league.

Keion White has generated a team-leading 25 pressures on 163 pass rushes this season, increasing his pressure rate by nearly 3x, from 5.2% in 2023 to 15.3% through six games in 2024. Of his 25 pressures, White has totaled 14 in under 2.5 seconds, the most quick pressures on the team; no other Patriots defender has more than 5 quick pressures.

Geno Smith has been at his best when kept clean this season, recording a 61.7% success rate when not pressured (1st), compared to 30.2% when under pressure (22nd). Matchup: The Falcons have only pressured the quarterback on 23.0% of their dropbacks, the only team under 25%. Despite this, they keep the offense in front of them as they have the 2nd-lowest air yards per attempt (5.4) and only allow 4.1 yards after catch per reception (2nd) on plays without pressure.

DK Metcalf has accumulated 212 of his 469 yards and both of his 2 touchdowns on go routes, the most yards gained by any player on a single route this season. Metcalf has been particularly effective at go routes this season compared to previous years, posting career-highs in catch rate over expected (+4.9%) and EPA per route (0.12).

Bijan Robinson has the 3rd-highest rate of carries into light boxes (62.2%) among running backs with at least 25 carries this season. Robinson has generated the fastest average speed among running backs by the time he reaches the line of scrimmage at 11.54 mph. Robinson pairs this speed with shiftiness in space forcing 15 missed tackles in light boxes (1st) for an extra 81 yards gained from missed tackles (T-3rd). Matchup: The Seahawks have the 2nd-most yards per carry allowed on designed runs when utilizing light boxes (6.4).

Calvin Ridley is being used as the deep threat for the Titans this season with a 46.7% air yards share (6th-highest) and the 3rd-highest air yards per target (18.3) among players with at least 50 routes. Ridley is getting more free releases than the average deep threat with the lowest press rate (15%) among players with over 15 air yards per target and posting career-highs in pre-snap off coverage (67.7%) and average cushion (6.8).

Josh Allen was productive in Week 6 on throws outside the pocket, completing 4 of 5 attempts for 95 yards and a touchdown. Allen generated 6.6 total EPA on throws outside the pocket, his highest in a game on such throws since Week 15, 2022 against the Dolphins (7.3). In Weeks 4-5 combined, Allen completed only 1 of 12 attempts for 52 yards and -17.1 total EPA.

Both Titans running backs Tony Pollard (-0.2) and Tyjae Spears (-0.1) have recorded negative yards before contact per carry this season, just 2 of the 4 running backs with at least 15 carries to do so. Matchup: The Bills defense contacts opposing rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 45.3% of carries this season (5th-highest in NFL).

Bengals

Browns

Josh Jacobs has totaled 565 yards on 119 touches this season, forcing 28 missed tackles, 6th-most in the NFL. After generating -86 rushing yards over expected in 2023, Jacobs bounced back this season with +58 RYOE, 12th-most among running backs. Jacobs has been particularly strong at powering through contact, recording 366 rushing yards after contact, 3rd-most in the NFL.

The Texans have generated a league-high 43.1% pressure rate this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to generate a league-low -67.9 passing EPA when doing so. The Texans have been led by Danielle Hunter (32 pressures) and Will Anderson (28), who rank 2nd and T-7th in pressures generated this season respectively. The Texans are the only team with multiple players with at least 25 pressures this season. Jordan Love has completed 18 of his 45 passes for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions when facing pressure this season, recording a completion percentage over expected of -12.2% on such pass attempts, lowest in the NFL.

Danielle Hunter has generated 32 pressures this season, 2nd-most in the NFL and his most through the first six weeks of a season since his 35 pressures in 2019. Hunter has aligned as the Texans’ left EDGE rusher on 70.3% of his defensive snaps this season, compared to just 27.4% as the right EDGE. The Packers starting right tackle, Zach Tom, has allowed just 13 pressures on 200 pass blocks this season, good for a 6.5% pressure rate allowed (9th-lowest among right tackles with at least 75 pass blocks). Tom is one of just three right tackles with 75 pass blocks this season to not allow a sack this season.

The Dolphins have generated -110 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL, after posting the 2nd-most (+408) last season. Running back De’Von Achane has recorded -78 rushing yards over expected while forcing a 23.6% missed tackle rate this season, compared to +279 rushing yards over expected and a 35.6% missed tackle force rate last season. Matchup: The Colts defense has allowed a league-high 800 expected rushing yards on designed runs this season, but only +34 rushing yards over expected, 18th-most in the NFL.

Joe Flacco has posted a 2.61-second time to throw since replacing the injured Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback, the 5th-quickest in the NFL. Flacco has thrown 4 touchdowns and 1 interception with a +1.7% completion percentage over expected on passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds this season. Matchup: The Dolphins defense has allowed the second-highest expected completion percentage (79.4%) on quick throws this season.

The Colts defense has utilized zone coverage on 85.8% of opposing dropbacks this season (2nd-highest in the NFL), allowing 8.4 yards per attempt on such dropbacks, 4th-most in the NFL. The Colts specifically like to use Cover 3, with their 49.1% Cover 3 rate ranking 3rd in the NFL.

Lions

Vikings

Eagles

Giants

Raiders

Rams

Chuba Hubbard has rushed for 485 yards and 2 touchdowns across 86 carries this season, generating +129 rush yards over expected, 5th-most in the NFL. Hubbard has done a particularly good job at getting downhill quick, averaging a 2.55 seconds time to the line of scrimmage, quickest among any ball carrier with at least 40 carries this season. Hubbard has taken advantage of light boxes as well, with 355 of his rushing yards coming with less than 7 defenders in the box, 78 yards more than the next closest player. The Commanders have utilized a light box on 70.3% of their defensive snaps this season, 6th-highest in the NFL, allowing 5.5 yards per carry on such snaps (19th in the NFL).

Jayden Daniels has completed 32 of his 51 pass attempts of 10+ air yards this season, recording 652 yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception. Daniels has also generated +41.4 EPA on such passes, 3rd-most in the NFL, and 3rd-most of any rookie through six weeks since 2016. The Panthers are one of three teams to allow 9 touchdowns on passes of 10+ air yards this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to record a 109.0 passer rating on such attempts, 7th-highest in the NFL.

Terry McLaurin has run a post, corner, go, or wheel on 42.2% of his routes this season, his highest vertical route rate since his rookie season in 2019. McLaurin has caught 6 of his 15 targets on such routes this season, recording 178 yards, 3 touchdowns, and +1.6 receptions over expected (7th-most in the NFL).

Travis Kelce has seen noticeable upticks in target rate and receiving efficiency since Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury in Week 4. Kelce has been targeted on 29.2% of his routes since Week 4, more than double his target rate in Weeks 1-3 (14.6%). Kelce has also accounted for a team-high 38.1% share of the Chiefs air yards since Week 4, up from his 18.7% share in Weeks 1-3.

The 49ers offense used 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE) on 45.9% of their plays in Week 6 against the Seahawks, gaining 317 yards and 2 touchdowns, the most such yards in a game by any offense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). The 49ers have used 21 personnel on a league-high 41.7% of plays this season and averaged 7.6 yards per play, their most in season under Kyle Shanahan (since 2017). Matchup: The Chiefs defense has matched 86.4% of plays (19 of 22) when facing 21 personnel with base defense this season, roughly 20% above the NFL average (65.3%).

George Kittle has been targeted on 31.4% of his 35 routes run inside the red zone this season, both of which lead all tight ends this season (min. 15 such routes). Kittle has caught 10 of his 11 red zone targets for 65 yards and 5 touchdowns, including 3 receptions for 24 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 tight window targets.

Jets

Steelers

Buccaneers running backs have generated +0.18 EPA per carry (3rd-most) and +75 rushing yards over expected (5th-most) on designed runs out of shotgun this season. Buccaneers RBs average 7.5 yards per carry on such rushes, over a full yard more than the next closest team (JAX, 6.3). The Ravens have allowed a success rate of 28.6% to opposing running backs on designed run attempts out of shotgun, the 2nd-lowest rate in the league. Opposing backs have generated -0.29 on such attempts against the Ravens, the 3rd-fewest of any defense.

Brandon Stephens has allowed less than a yard of separation on 50% of his targets as the nearest defender this season, tied for the highest rate this season among corners (min. 10 targets). Stephens has allowed an average of 1.7 yards of separation when targeted, 4th-lowest among CBs.

Baker Mayfield ranks in the top 2 among qualified quarterbacks in touchdowns (9), yards per attempt (7.3), and success rate (60.1%) on passes traveling less than 10 air yards. Last week against the Saints, Mayfield completed 23 of 28 short pass attempts for 303 yards, the most yards on such attempts this season.

Chargers

Cardinals