What's At Stake in Week 16 in the NFL: Playoff Positioning and the No. 1 Pick

We have insights on all 12 NFL matchups + news and notes from the CFP and more

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: What’s at stake in today’s NFL slate

2. The Rundown: CFP quarterfinal matchups are set

3. Game of the Day: Fading Bucs’ grip on NFC South is slipping

4. By the Numbers: NFL’s lowest-scoring offense (Raiders) faces best defense (Texans)

5. Overtime: Bears get their 6th fourth quarter comeback win with a walk-off

1. Leading Off

With the Eagles win over the Commanders last night, the Cowboys suddenly don’t have anything to play for today — Dallas will miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. But seven of today’s 12 games matter for the postseason. Four others could be considered relevant because a loss gets a team closer to the No. 1 draft pick, which leaves the Bengals vs. Dolphins as the only matchup without much of a point.

The Bills (at Browns) and Texans (vs. Raiders) should have routine Sundays as they march closer to playoff eligibility, and the Chargers’ day probably got a little easier now that the Cowboys have been eliminated. Then there are four games featuring two teams with playoff hopes:

• Buccaneers vs. Panthers: Both teams are 7-7 and they face off twice in the final three games of the season to decide the NFC South. Carolina needs this game more than Tampa Bay because it’s at home. We have more on this one in our Game of the Day section.

• Jaguars vs. Broncos: Denver is the only AFC team to have clinched a spot in the playoffs, but they still have work to do to earn the No. 1 seed. Jacksonville has won five straight but is just one ahead of Houston in the AFC South.

• Steelers vs. Lions: Detroit can’t afford a home loss here, while Pittsburgh would love to still be a game up on Baltimore when they face off in the final game of the season. The Steelers have won two in a row after two straight losses, while the Lions have lost three of five.

• Patriots vs. Ravens: New England is still atop the AFC East and just one game back for the No. 1 seed in the conference, but the sheen came off a bit after they let a very winnable game against the Bills get away. Baltimore plays at Lambeau and in Pittsburgh after this game, so the Ravens aren’t getting any breaks to end the season.

And whether they admit it or not, the 2-12 Titans have no intention of winning at home against the Chiefs even though Kansas City will be without quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Similarly, the 2-12 Giants are fine letting Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy continue his mini-run of success, the 3-11 Jets would be OK with the 4-10 Saints extending their winning streak to three, and the 3-11 Cardinals wouldn’t mind if their six-game losing streak went to seven against the Falcons. The Giants currently hold the No. 1 pick.

— Abe Rakov

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2. The Rundown

CFP Quarterfinals Are Set, Dodgers’ Tax Bill, and Winningest College QB is Available

• The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are set. After No. 10 Miami’s slog of a 10-3 upset win at Texas A&M yesterday, the Hurricanes will face No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. No. 6 Ole Miss handled its business without coach Lane Kiffin in a 41-10 win over Tulane and will play No. 3 Georgia in a rematch in the Sugar Bowl. No. 5 Oregon put its game against James Madison away by halftime and will head to the Orange Bowl to take on No. 4 Texas Tech. And as was already decided, the Rose Bowl is No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana. Last year, all four worse-ranked teams won in the quarterfinal games, though three of them weren’t upsets.

• Las Vegas drafted running back Ashton Jeanty, who was the Heisman Trophy runner up after a dominant year at Boise State, hoping to add some explosiveness to an offensive that relied too heavily on rookie tight end Brock Bowers last season. It hasn’t exactly worked out that way. Las Vegas averages just 14 points per game, the worst mark in the NFL, and has just two wins. Jeanty has rushed for 700 yards on 200 carries (3.5 yards per carry) and has four touchdowns. He’s had three straight games where he’s run for 35 yards or fewer, and six of those efforts on the year.

• How much does it cost to win a World Series? For the Dodgers, the price included a record $169.4 million competitive balance tax bill. The champions had the most expensive roster in league history, and between the extra charge and their payroll, the Dodgers will have paid over $516 million for their squad. Nine teams, which tied a record, had to pay the tax for having a payroll over $241 million in 2025.

• Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham isn’t going to Michigan, as he signed a five-year contract extension to stay at his alma mater. He’ll average $7.5 million per year, lower than some of the similar extensions that have been signed this offseason, but Dillingham also negotiated for an increase to the salary pool for his assistants that puts Arizona State near the top of the Big 12, according to ESPN. The 35-year-old is in his third season in Tempe and has gone 19-7 since his 3-9 first campaign. Dillingham is still hoping more resources will come his program’s way, though, saying, “We live in Phoenix, Arizona. You’re telling me there's not one person who could stroke a $20 million check right now? There is somebody out here who can.”

• The winningest returning quarterback in college football is on the market, as Iowa State’s Rocco Becht announced he’s entering the transfer portal. Becht’s former coach Matt Campbell left for Penn State earlier this month, and the Nittany Lions could be in the market for a quarterback with Drew Allar headed to the NFL. Becht has 26 wins for the Cyclones over the past three seasons, throwing for over 9,000 yards with 64 touchdowns during his career in Ames. He was less productive this year than in his past two, though, throwing for fewer yards and touchdowns, while matching his interception total from last season (9) with 117 fewer throws.

3. Game of the Day

Panthers Are Home Underdogs Against Fading Bucs in 1st of 2 Matchups in 3 Weeks That Will Decide Division

Tampa Bay has lost five of six, which is putting its streak of four straight NFC South titles at risk. The Buccaneers are tied with the Panthers and the teams play twice in the final three weeks of the season (Tampa visits Miami in between while Carolina has the Seahawks at home). The Panthers aren’t lighting the world on fire, they’ve won six of 10, but their win two weeks ago over the Rams was one of the most surprising of the season. Carolina averages fewer than 20 points per game, but Tampa hasn’t shown an ability to stop almost anyone. The teams just lost back-to-back to the Saints, doubling the New Orleans’ win total in two weeks.

Buccaneers (7-7, 4-3 Away) vs. Panthers (7-7, 4-2 Home)
1pm on FOX

The Odds

• Spread: TB (-3, -102), CAR (+3, -120)

  • The money is 50/50 but 52% of the bets are with TB

  • ATS | TB (road): 4-3, CAR (home): 4-2

• Moneyline: TB -146, CAR +124

• Total (45.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • TB: 8-6, CAR: 7-7

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• TB QB Baker Mayfield | Pass Yards: 228.5 (277, 122, 194, 41, 173), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (34, 30, 28, 19, 28), Pass TD: 1.5 (2, 1, 1, 1, 1), Rush Yards: 12.5 (1, 42, 27, 19, 39)

• TB RB Bucky Irving | Rush Yards: 63.5 (60, 55, 61, 63, 66), Carries: 16.5 (16, 15, 17, 15, 25)

• CAR QB Bryce Young | Pass Yards: 204.5 (163, 206, 169, 448, 124), Pass Attempts: 30.5 (15, 15, 18, 31, 17), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 3, 1, 3, 0), Rush Yards: 12.5 (49, 23, 15, -1, 6)

• CAR RB Rico Dowdle | Rush Yards: 58.5 (49, 58, 38, 45, 53), Carries: 14.5 (16, 18, 6, 19, 18), Anytime TD: +120 (1, 0, 0, 0, 1)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Patriots Are 3-Point Underdogs in Baltimore But Are 5-1 ATS on Road (Ravens Are 2-6 ATS at Home)

NFL

• Bills (10-4, 4-3 Away) vs. Browns (3-11, 2-5 Home)

  • BUF (-10.5, -105), CLE (+10.5, -115): 87% of the money and 75% of the bets are with BUF

    • ATS | BUF (road): 4-3, CLE (home): 4-2

  • Total (41.5) | BUF: 7-7 (29.4 ppg), CLE: 5-9 (16.1 ppg)

    • BUF Def: 23.1 ppg, CLE Def: 23.7 ppg

• Chiefs (6-8, 1-5 Away) vs. Titans (2-12, 0-7 Home)

  • KC (-2.5, -120), TEN (+2.5, -102): 55% of the money is with TEN but 52% of the bets are with KC

    • ATS | KC (road): 1-4, TEN (home): 3-4

  • Total (37.5) | KC: 4-10 (23.4 ppg), TEN: 9-5 (16.1 ppg)

    • KC Def: 19.1 ppg, TEN Def: 28.1 ppg

• Vikings (6-8, 4-4 Away) vs. Giants (2-12, 2-4 Home)

  • MIN (-2.5, -115), NYG (+2.5, -105): 78% of the money and bets are with MIN

    • ATS | MIN (road): 3-3, NYG (home): 3-3

  • Total (43.5) | MIN: 8-6 (20.6 ppg), NYG: 9-5 (21.4 ppg)

    • MIN Def: 21.9 ppg, NYG Def: 28.3 ppg

• Jaguars (10-4, 4-2 Away) vs. Broncos (12-2, 7-0 Home)

  • JAX (+3.5, -120), DEN (-3.5, -102): 60% of the money and 53% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | JAX (road): 3-3, DEN (home): 4-3

  • Total (46.5) | JAX: 8-6 (26.9 ppg), DEN: 6-8 (24.4 ppg)

    • JAX Def: 20.9 ppg, DEN Def: 18.6 ppg

• Falcons (5-9, 3-5 Away) vs. Cardinals (3-11, 1-6 Home)

  • ATL (-2.5, -120), ARI (+2.5, -102): 70% of the money and 67% of the bets are with ATL

    • ATS | ATL (road): 4-3, ARI (home): 1-6

  • Total (48.5) | ATL: 7-7 (20.1 ppg), ARI: 9-5 (21.6 ppg)

    • ATL Def: 24.4 ppg, ARI Def: 27.7 ppg

• Steelers (8-6, 3-3 Away) vs. Lions (8-6, 5-2 Home)

  • PIT (+6.5, -102), DET (-6.5, -120): 89% of the money and 70% of the bets are with DET

    • ATS | PIT (road): 2-4, DET (home): 4-3

  • Total (51.5) | PIT: 7-7 (24.0 ppg), DET: 9-5 (30.6 ppg)

    • PIT Def: 23.3 ppg, DET Def: 24.6 ppg

• Raiders (2-12, 1-6 Away) vs. Texans (9-5, 5-2 Home)

  • LV (+14.5, -122), HOU (-14.5, +100): 88% of the money and 76% of the bets are with HOU

    • ATS | LV (road): 2-5, HOU (home): 5-2

  • Total (37.5) | LV: 5-9 (14.0 ppg), HOU 4-10 (23.1 ppg)

    • LV Def: 25.9 ppg, HOU Def: 16.9 ppg

• Patriots (11-3, 6-0 Away) vs. Ravens (7-7, 3-5 Home)

  • NE (+3, -115), BAL (-3, -105): 57% of the money and 67% of the bets are with NE

    • ATS | NE (road): 5-1, BAL (home): 2-6

  • Total (48.5) | NE: 8-6 (27.3 ppg), BAL: 6-8 (23.9 ppg)

    • NE Def: 19.7 ppg, BAL Def: 22.9 ppg

Players to Watch

• Chargers QB Justin Herbert (@ Cowboys)

  • Pass Yards: 249.5 (210, 139, 151, 81, 220), Pass Attempts: 32.5 (29, 26, 20, 18, 33), Pass TD: 1.5 (1, 1, 2, 0, 1)

  • Opponent (DAL - L2) | Pass Yards: 254.8 (32nd), Total Yards: 374.9 (29th), Points: 30.0 (31st)

• Dolphins RB De’Von Achane (vs. Bengals)

  • Rush Yards: 82.5 (60, 92, 134, 120, 174), Carries: 17.5 (12, 7, 22, 21, 22), Rec Yards: 27.5 (67, 13, 0, 45, 51), Anytime TD: -210 (0, 1, 1, 0, 2)

  • Opponent (CIN - L2) | Rush Yards: 157.9 (32nd), Total Yards: 403.8 (32nd), Points: 31.2 (32nd)

• Jets RB Breece Hall (@ Saints)

  • Rush Yards: 60.5 (23, 43, 68, 44, 58), Carries: 16.5 (12, 14, 19, 16, 14)

  • Opponent (NO - W2) | Rush Yards: 130.6 (26th), Total Yards: 311.2 (11th), Points: 23.7 (19th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“He always makes plays when needed. He’s clutch like that.” — Chicago coach Ben Johnson on quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw a walk-off 46-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore in overtime to stun the Packers 22-16. The Bears were down 10 points when they got the ball with about five minutes to go and took too long to kick a field goal on the ensuing drive, so they were forced into an onside kick just after the two minute warning. Chicago miraculously recovered the kick, Williams threw a touchdown pass on fourth down to tie the game after a minute and a half drive, and then his incredible OT game-winner took his team to 11-4. Bears non-believers will point out a caveat: Packers quarterback Jordan Love was knocked out of the game with a concussion on a helmet-to-helmet hit in the second quarter (roughing the passer was called), so Green Bay played most of the game with backup Malik Willis under center.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 11:30am: Aston Villa vs. Manchester United on NBC

• 1pm: Buccaneers vs. Panthers (or Chargers vs. Cowboys) on FOX

• 4:05pm: Jaguars vs. Broncos on FOX (or Steelers vs. Lions on CBS)

• 7pm: Maple Leafs vs. Stars on NHL Network

• 8:20pm: Patriots vs. Ravens on NBC