Where the NFL Playoffs Stand After 1 Round + NBA and MCBB Trends and Players to Watch

Stephen Curry is averaging over 40 points in 3 games against tonight’s opponent

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Where the NFL playoffs stand after one round

2. Game of the Day: Spurs are 3-0 vs. Thunder this season

3. Scouting Report: Curry is averaging over 40 points per game vs. Trail Blazers

4. By the Numbers: Michigan State is struggling against the spread at home

5. Overtime: Harbaugh decided to talk to a lot of teams after all

1. Leading Off

Another road favorite in the NFL playoffs earned a win last night with the Texans beating the Steelers 30-6 in Pittsburgh. Four of six games were won by the road team, two by underdogs and two by favorites. The two franchises that secured their playoff tickets in the last week of the regular season, the Steelers and Panthers, both lost at home. Pittsburgh had a good enough record to make the postseason even without winning its division, but two NFC teams that didn’t make the playoffs finished with more wins than Carolina.

The AFC’s top-seeded Broncos haven’t played yet but have already fallen to third of four teams odds-wise to win the conference at +290. Denver is a home underdog against Buffalo, which has the second-best odds to advance to the Super Bowl (+240) behind New England (+230). The Patriots start as 2.5-point favorites against the visiting Texans (+310 to win the AFC).

In the NFC, the No. 1 Seahawks (+120) are favored to hold serve and advance to their first Super Bowl since losing to the Patriots in 2015. They’re followed by the Rams (+165), who are 3.5-point road favorites against the No. 2 Bears (+550). The 49ers have the longest odds to win their conference of any team still in the playoffs at +900.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Thunder Looking for First Win Over Spurs, Who Are Off to a Slow Start in 2026

Since December 23rd the Spurs are 2-0 against the defending champion Thunder and 4-5 against everyone else. San Antonio has won all three games against Oklahoma City so far this season. The Thunder have three wins in a row since a head-scratching 27-point home loss to the Hornets.

Victor Wembanyama missed the first two games of January due to an injury but was in the starting lineup on Sunday after coming off the bench his first three games back. He scored 29 points in 27 minutes after adding just 21 and 16 his previous two outings. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had his third sub-30 point effort over his last four on Sunday, scoring 29 points with five rebounds and eight assists.

Spurs (27-12, 13-7 Away) vs. Thunder (33-7, 19-2 Home)
8pm on NBC

The Odds

• Spread: SA (+8, -114), OKC (-8, -106)

  • 67% of the money and 78% of the bets are with SA

  • ATS | SA (road): 10-9-1, OKC (home): 11-10

• Moneyline: SA +205, OKC -250

• Total (228.5): Over -114, Under -106

  • SA: 17-23, OKC: 20-20

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Spurs F Victor Wembanyama | Points: 21.5 (24.3 - 29, 21, 16, 30, 31), Reb: 9.5 (11.1 - 7, 6, 14, 5, 13), Ast: 2.5 (3.1 - 1, 1, 2, 3, 1)

• Spurs G Stephon Castle | Points: 15.5 (17.2 - 11, 9, 15, 15, 16), Reb: 4.5 (5.1 - 6, 2, 5, 8, 5), Ast: 5.5 (6.8 - 5, 5, 4, 4, 9)

• Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Points: 31.5 (31.9 - 29, 46, 21, 25, 30), Reb: 4.5 (4.5 - 5, 6, 2, 0, 1), Ast: 6.5 (6.4 - 8, 6, 6, 6, 7)

• Thunder C Chet Holmgren | Points: 16.5 (18.1 - 16, 23, 15, 18, 15), Reb: 8.5 (8.3 - 10, 12, 6, 9, 15), Ast: 1.5 (1.6 - 2, 1, 2, 1, 4)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Curry Averages 40.3 Per Game vs. Portland This Season, Durant Keeps Increasing PPG

• Warriors G Stephen Curry (vs. Trail Blazers)

  • Curry has averaged 40.3 points in three matchups against Portland so far this year, including 48 on 16-26 shooting the last time these teams faced off in a 136-131 Trail Blazers win in mid-December. He’s scored over 30 points in three of his past five games. The Trail Blazers had given up less than their points average in five straight (all victories) before Sunday’s 123-114 loss to the Knicks.

  • Points: 28.5 (28.8 - 31, 27, 31, 27, 31), Reb: 3.5 (3.8 - 3, 0, 6, 4, 2), Ast: 4.5 (4.7 - 5, 10, 7, 6, 5)

  • POR - L1 (7-3 L10) | Points Allowed: 118.9 (24th), Reb Allowed: 44.5 (17th), Ast Allowed: 26.7 (17th)

• Rockets F Kevin Durant (vs. Bulls)

  • Durant increased his scoring average by three points from November to December and is scoring two points more a game in January compared to last month. He’s shot 50% or better from the field in 9 of 10 games and collected double-digit rebounds in two of his past four. After giving up 136 points in a loss to Minnesota on December 29th, the Bulls have allowed under their season average in six straight, so they’re due for regression.

  • Points: 26.5 (26.1 - 23, 30, 37, 26, 34), Reb: 5.5 (5.3 - 4, 12, 4, 10, 5), Ast: 4.5 (4.5 - 6, 5, 0, 4, 7)

  • CHI - W1 (5-5 L10) | Points Allowed: 120.8 (26th), Reb Allowed: 45.4 (22nd), Ast Allowed: 27.6 (23rd)

• Mississippi State G Josh Hubbard (vs. No. 18 Alabama)

  • Hubbard is averaging over 29 points in his first three SEC games of the season, including a 38-point effort at Texas where he shot just 32.3%. He’s the seventh-leading scorer in men’s college basketball, just 1.3 a night behind No. 1. Only one major-conference team (Providence) and 21 schools out of 365 in all of Division I give up more points per game than Alabama.

  • Points: 23.5 (22.8 - 20, 30, 38, 22, 17)

  • ALA - L2 (2-4 vs. AP Top 25) | Points Allowed: 82.7 (344th), Reb Allowed: 40.9 (361st), Ast Allowed: 13.0 (157th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Nuggets Are 4-3 Since Jokic Injury But Score Nearly 14 Fewer Points a Game

NBA

• Suns (24-15, 10-10 Away) vs. Heat (20-19, 13-6 Home)

  • PHX (+1, -114), MIA (-1, -106): 60% of the money is with MIA but 62% of the bets are with PHX

    • ATS | PHX (road): 13-7, MIA (home): 11-8

  • Total (230.5) | PHX: 16-23 (114.7 ppg), MIA: 18-21 (119.4 ppg)

• Bulls (18-20, 7-11 Away) vs. Rockets (22-14, 11-2 Home)

  • CHI (+12.5, -108), HOU (-12.5, -112): 52% of the money and 66% of the bets are with CHI

    • ATS | CHI (road): 8-10, HOU (home): 6-7

  • Total (224.5) | CHI: 16-22 (117.3 ppg), HOU: 18-18 (117.9 ppg)

• Timberwolves (26-14, 11-8 Away) vs. Bucks (17-22, 9-9 Home)

  • MIN (+3.5, -110), MIL (-3.5, -110): 54% of the money is with MIL but 63% of the bets are with MIN

    • ATS | MIN (road): 8-11, MIL (home): 8-10

  • Total (228.5) | MIN: 19-21 (119.9 ppg), MIL: 16-23 (112.9 ppg)

• Nuggets (26-13, 15-7 Away) vs. Pelicans (9-32, 6-17 Home)

  • DEN (-3, -106), NOP (+3, -114): 59% of the money and 63% of the bets are with DEN

    • ATS | DEN (road): 13-9, NOP (home): 13-9-1

  • Total (235.5) | DEN: 24-15 (122.7 ppg), NOP: 22-19 (114.9 ppg)

• Trail Blazers (19-21, 9-11 Away) vs. Warriors (21-19, 13-6 Home)

  • POR (+10.5, -114), GSW (-10.5, -106): 71% of the money and 78% of the bets are with POR

    • ATS | POR (road): 10-10, GSW (home): 10-9

  • Total (225.5) | POR: 21-19 (116.3 ppg), GSW: 22-18 (115.4 ppg)

MCBB

• No. 16 Virginia (14-2, 3-1 ACC) vs. No. 20 Louisville (12-4, 2-2 ACC)

  • UVA (+3.5, -110), LOU (-3.5, -110): 56% of the money is with LOU but 59% of the bets are with UVA

    • ATS | UVA (road): 2-1, LOU (home): 6-4

  • Total (153.5) | UVA: 7-9 (85.1 ppg), LOU: 6-10 (88.3 ppg)

• Texas A&M (13-3, 3-0 SEC) vs. No. 24 Tennessee (11-5, 1-2 SEC)

  • TAMU (+8.5, -102), TEN (-8.5, -120): 58% of the money is with TEN but 54% of the bets are with TAMU

    • ATS | TAMU (road): 2-1, TEN (home): 4-5

  • Total (158.5) | TAMU: 11-5 (93.7 ppg), TEN: 10-6 (82.4 ppg)

• No. 19 Florida (11-5, 2-1 SEC) vs. Oklahoma (11-5, 1-2 SEC)

  • UF (-5.5, -110), OKL (+5.5, -110): 79% of the money and 67% of the bets are with UF

    • ATS | UF (road): 1-1, OKL (home): 3-5

  • Total (155.5) | UF: 6-10 (85.2 ppg), OKL: 7-9 (84.4 ppg)

• Indiana (12-4, 3-2 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 Michigan State (14-2, 4-1 Big Ten)

  • IND (+6.5, -102), MSU (-6.5, -120): 85% of the money and 77% of the bets are with MSU

    • ATS | IND (road): 1-2, MSU (home): 3-6-1

  • Total (142.5) | IND: 9-7 (84.5 ppg), MSU: 5-11 (78.9 ppg)

• No. 2 Iowa State (16-0, 3-0 Big 12) vs. Kansas (11-5, 1-2 Big 12)

  • ISU (-3.5, -102), KAN (+3.5, -120): 80% of the money and 71% of the bets are with ISU

    • ATS | ISU (road): 2-0, KAN (home): 4-3

  • Total (148.5) | ISU: 8-8 (88.0 ppg), KAN: 6-10 (77.5 ppg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• The Falcons were the first team to win the John Harbaugh interview lottery, but according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the coach has already had less formal conversations with the Browns, Cardinals, Giants, Raiders, and Titans. Atlanta reportedly also interviewed Mike McDaniel, who was fired by the Dolphins — one of the few available teams not on Harbaugh’s call list yet.

• After Michigan’s loss to Wisconsin, Arizona now has all but one first-place vote in the AP men’s college basketball Top 25. Fellow 16-0 school Iowa State got the lone holdout and is second, followed by 16-1 UConn and Michigan. Nebraska improved to 16-0 and moved up two spots to eighth, while another 16-0 team, Vanderbilt, moved up one to 10th. No. 16 Virginia was the biggest climber of the week, improving seven spots, while Alabama had the largest fall — down five places to 18th.

• The PGA Tour quickly welcomed back LIV-defector Brooks Koepka, as it announced a Returning Member Program that allows certain players who left for the Saudi-backed league to come back with a financial penalty (no player equity shares for five years and no eligibility for the $100 million in FedEx Cup bonus money available this year) and other conditions. Golfers who have played in LIV for at least two years and have won a major or the Players Championship since 2022 are eligible for the program, which means Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Cameron Smith would all be welcome back on Tour. The deadline to take the deal is February 2nd.

• Two college quarterbacks reportedly found their new homes after entering the transfer portal, as Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt is expected to join Lane Kiffin at LSU and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola committed to Oregon. Ducks’ starter Dante Moore hasn’t made a decision on the NFL Draft yet, so Raiola could find himself sitting out a year if Moore very unexpectedly returns.

• After missing a January 9th deadline and not granting another extension, the WNBA and the players association have agreed on a moratorium on league business. The news means free agency is in flux and the draft might have to be delayed. Now a lockout by the league or strike by the players can occur without notice.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: Newcastle vs. Manchester City [English Carabao Cup] on Paramount+

• 7pm: No. 23 Virginia vs. No. 20 Louisville [MCBB] on ESPN2

• 7:30pm: Red Wings vs. Bruins on TNT

• 8pm: Spurs vs. Thunder on NBC (or No. 4 UConn vs. Seton Hall [MCBB] on truTV)

• 9pm: No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 22 Kansas [MCBB] on ESPN

• 10pm: Stars vs. Ducks on TNT

• 11pm: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors on NBC