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In Today’s Newsletter…
1. Leading Off: Team USA is the favorite at the WBC
2. Scouting Report: Michigan State faces one of NCAA’s worst defensive teams
3. Game of the Day: Spurs vs. Pistons in a battle of the upstarts
4. By the Numbers: Bettors are split on two NBA matchups
5. Overtime: Aaron Rodgers Watch is back
1. Leading Off
The World Baseball Classic is back, and once again, the road to the title likely runs through Japan and United States. Japan, led by superstar Shohei Ohtani, is chasing its second straight WBC title and fourth overall. No country has been more consistent in the tournament’s six-edition history.
But oddsmakers are with Team USA. Behind a loaded pitching staff headlined by Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Mason Miller, the United States enters as the betting favorite at -110. The Dominican Republic (+360), Japan (+380), and Venezuela (+900) round out the top tier in the 20-nation field.
The Classic features four pools of five countries. After 40 round-robin games running through March 11, the top two squads from each group move on to the single-elimination quarterfinals starting March 13. The championship game is set for March 17 in Miami.
Team USA’s pool includes Brazil, Great Britain, Italy, and Mexico, which have a combined 18 MLB players. By comparison, there are currently 1,081 U.S.-born players across MLB organizations. The Dominican Republic is second with 144. Japan, which hasn’t finished worse than third in WBC history, has just 13 MLB to choose from, but as always its roster will be stacked with elite talent from Nippon Professional Baseball.
In the MVP market, Aaron Judge is the betting favorite at +800. Ohtani sits right behind him at +1000 on FanDuel, followed by a cluster of four Team USA stars before Dominican sluggers Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto appear on the board.
If the early odds are any indication, this year’s Classic is shaping up as a heavyweight fight with the U.S. power arms trying to slow down Japan’s precision machine.
— Abe Rakov
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2. Scouting Report
MSU’s Fears Jr. Gets Enticing Rematch, Jokic Faces Lakers for 1st Time This Season
Jeremy Fears Jr. | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic
Jokic averaged just 25.6 points per game in February after returning from injury for just one January contest, but has scored 30+ in four of his last six. He put in 22 last time out, taking just 11 shots in 36 minutes. Jokic has 12+ rebounds in 11 of 13, but the Lakers allow the third-fewest boards of any team in the NBA. After a three-game losing streak, the LA has won three straight with shut-down defense — giving up 101, 104 and 101 (though the competition wasn’t good). Jokic didn’t play in Denver’s 115-107 loss to LA on January 20th.
Points: 29.5 (28.7 - 22, 35, 23, 30, 35), Reb: 13.5 (12.6 - 12, 13, 17, 12, 20), Ast: 9.5 (10.3 - 5, 9, 14, 6, 12)
Lakers - W3 (5-5 L10) | Points Allowed: 115.2 (15th), Reb Allowed: 41.0 (3rd), Ast Allowed: 27.5 (22nd)
Magic F Paolo Banchero
After a slow first half of February, Banchero has scored 26.9 points an outing in his seven games since the All Star break, nearly five more than his average. He was 15-21 with a season-high 37 points last time out (vs. Washington) in his second 36+ point performance in four games. Prior to that, Banchero had only scored over 30 points three times all season. Dallas has lost 14 of 16 and has given up 122+ in seven of its last 11 matchups.
Points: 22.5 (22.1 - 37, 24, 19, 36, 16), Reb: 8.5 (8.4 - 5, 11, 8, 10, 7), Ast: 5.5 (5.0 - 6, 2, 9, 6, 8)
Mavericks - L4 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 117.6 (22nd), Reb Allowed: 46.6 (27th), Ast Allowed: 27.5 (22nd)
Michigan State G Jeremy Fears Jr.
Rutgers is one of the worst defensive teams in a major conference and is somehow even more deficient at protecting the glass. No. 8 Michigan State is lead by Fears Jr., a sophomore who scores over 15 points per night and has averaged nearly 19 in his past nine. He’s coming off a 21-point performance where he went 7-13 from the field and added nine assists (Fears Jr. leads the country with 9.1 dishes a game). Rutgers gives up over 75 points an outing and allowed 88 in overtime when these teams played in January — a 88-79 Michigan State win in which Fears Jr. scored a then-career high 29 points.
Points: 15.1 (21, 12, 11, 16, 14), Reb: 2.5 (4, 1, 1, 1, 1), Ast: 9.1 (9, 6, 8, 10, 12)
Rutgers - W1 (3-7 L10) | Points Allowed: 75.4 (228th), Reb Allowed: 36.2 (292nd), Ast Allowed: 15.3 (304th)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
3. Game of the Day
Detroit Travels to San Antonio in Matchup of 2 Unexpected Title Contenders
Victor Wembanyama | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The NBA’s two upstarts face off in a matchup between teams that are making the case that they can knock of Oklahoma City. Winners of eight of 10, the Pistons are now five games up in the Eastern Conference. The Spurs have won 12 of 13, including their 4th in five matchups against the Thunder this season, and are second in the West — 3.5 games behind the defending champions with a 5.5-game lead over the Rockets and Timberwolves for third.
San Antonio won 114-103 when these teams played on February 23rd in Detroit, a game in which Pistons star Cade Cunningham had a 5-26 shooting night. After being shut down by the Knicks in Madison Square Garden, the Spurs are coming off a 40-point blowout over the 76ers, while the Pistons lost 113-109 at Cleveland on Tuesday.
Pistons (45-15, 21-8 Away) vs. Spurs (44-17, 21-6 Home)
8pm
The Odds
Spread: DET +3.5 (-114), SAS (-3.5, -106)
67% of the money and 53% of the bets are with SAS
ATS | DET (away): 12-16-1 SAS (home): 11-16-0
Moneyline: DET +132, SAS -156
Total (228.5): Over -110, Under -110
DET: 26-34, SAS: 25-37
Head-to-Head
Prediction Markets Data
Spread: DET 52%; Moneyline: SAS 58%; Under 228.5 Points: 51%
Players to Watch
DET G Cade Cunningham | Points: 26.5 (25.2 - 10, 29, 25, 29, 16), Reb: 6.5 (5.8 - 6, 6, 10, 4, 6), Ast: 10.5 (9.9 - 14, 11, 7, 13, 10)
SAS Victor Wembanyama | Points: 23.5 (23.4 - 10, 25, 12, 12, 21), Reb: 11.5 (11.1 - 8, 13, 8, 8, 17), Ast: 2.5 (2.9 - 4, 2, 5, 3, 4)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
4. By the Numbers
Bettors Split on 2 NBA Games, No. 3 Michigan is an 8.5-Point Favorite at Iowa
Anthony Edwards | Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
NBA
Mavericks (21-40, 7-20 Away) vs. Magic (32-28, 18-11 Home)
Spread | DAL +8.5 (-110), ORL -8.5 (-110): 54% of the money is with ORL
Moneyline | DAL +260, ORL -320
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: 50/50; Moneyline: ORL: 76%; Over 228.5 Points: 50%
Nets (15-46, 7-24 Away) vs. Heat (33-29, 19-11 Home)
Spread | BKN +12.5 (-105), MIA -12.5 (-115): 86% of the money is with MIA
Moneyline | BKN +500, MIA -700
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: MIA 55%; Moneyline: MIA 86%; Under 225.5 Points: 51%
Warriors (31-30, 12-17 Away) vs. Rockets (38-22, 20-7 Home)
Spread | GSW +9.5 (-106), HOU -9.5 (-114): 65% of the money is with GSW but 54% of the bets are with HOU
Moneyline | GSW +290, HOU -360
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: 50/50; Moneyline: HOU 75%; Over 214.5 Points: 50%
Raptors (35-26, 19-10 Away) vs. Timberwolves (39-23, 21-11 Home)
Spread | TOR +6.5 (-110), MIN -6.5 (-110): 63% of the money is with TOR but 55% of the bets are with MIN
Moneyline | TOR +198, MIN -240
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: TOR 54%; Moneyline: MIN 68%; Over 228.5 Points: 52%
Bulls (25-37, 9-19 Away) vs. Suns (35-26, 20-12 Home)
Spread | CHI +11 (-112), PHX -11 (-108): 78% of the money is with CHI
Moneyline | CHI +385, PHX -500
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: 50/50; Moneyline: PHX 81%; Over 225.5 Points: 50%
Lakers (37-24, 19-12 Away) vs. Nuggets (38-24, 16-12 Home)
Spread | LAL +5 (-110), DEN -5 (-110): 51% of the money is with DEN but 52% of the bets are with LAL
Moneyline | LAL +162, DEN -194
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: LAL 53%; Moneyline: DEN 64%; Under 239.5 Points: 55%
MCBB
No. 3 Michigan (27-2, 17-1 Big Ten) vs. Iowa (20-9, 10-8 Big Ten)
Spread | UM -8.5 (-110), UI +8.5 (-110): 55% of the money is with UM
Moneyline | UM -465, UI +340
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: 50/50; Moneyline: UM 79%; Over 145.5 Points: 50%
South Florida (21-8, 13-3 American) vs. Memphis (12-17, 7-9 American)
Spread | USF -6.5 (-102), MEM +6.5 (-120): 81% of the money is with USF
Moneyline | USF -285, MEM +230
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: MEM 52%; Moneyline: USF 70%; Under 160.5 Points: 52%
NHL
Mammoth (32-25-4, 14-15-2 Away) vs. Flyers (28-21-11, 14-9-7 Home)
Spread | UTA -1.5 (+198), PHI +1.5 (-250)
Moneyline | UTA -125, PHI +104: 60% of the money is with PHI but 65% of the bets are with UTA
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: UTA 31%; Moneyline: UTA 55%; Over 5.5 Goals: 55%
Sabres (36-19-6, 18-11-3 Away) vs. Penguins (31-16-13, 15-8-7 Home)
Spread | BUF -1.5 (+210), PIT +1.5 (-265)
Moneyline | BUF -115, PIT -104: 84% of the money is with BUF
Prediction Markets Data | Spread: BUF 32%; Moneyline: BUF 51%; Under 6.5 Goals: 53%
5. Overtime
In the News
After trading cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams, the Chiefs now have two first round draft picks this year. CBS Sports updated its mock draft to show what Kansas City could do with the extra selection.
Aaron Rodgers Watch is back, as the quarterback and Steelers aren’t committed to each other despite the team hiring his former coach Mike McCarthy. On “The Pat McAfee Show,” which was the mainstay for Rodgers Watch last time around, the quarterback said, “There’s no contract offer or anything, so there’s nothing that I’m having to debate between. I’m a free agent.”
Rumors about when Celtics star Jayson Tatum will return from the ruptured right Achilles he suffered less than 10 months ago continue swirling. Reports range from Tatum playing as early as this week to sitting out the entire season and playoffs. According to Yahoo Sports, if Tatum comes back in the next few weeks it would be the shortest rehab since Rudy Gay played just nine months after his surgery in the 2015-2016 season.
The Patriots decided to release wide receiver Stefon Diggs just one season into a three-year deal with his salary cap hit about to move from $10.5 million to $26.5 million. Diggs had 25 more receptions than New England’s second-leading target (tight end Hunter Henry), and also led the team with 1,013 yards in the regular season — nearly double the next-highest receiver.
With the start of the WNBA season in doubt, Unrivaled crowned Breanna Stewart’s Mist as the 2026 champions. Stewart, a co-founder of the two-year-old league, scored 32 of her team’s 80 points in a win over Phantom. “We used to have a seven-month blackout period where you didn’t know what these professional basketball players were doing. And now you know,” she said.
What to Watch (times ET)
1:05pm: Red Sox vs. Phillies (Spring Training) on MLB Network
3pm: Dodgers vs. Reds (Spring Training) on ESPN (or Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace on USA)
7pm: Sabres vs. Penguins on ESPN
7:30pm: Warriors vs. Rockets on Prime Video
8pm: No. 3 Michigan vs. Iowa on Peacock
9:30pm: Islanders vs. Kings on ESPN
10pm: Lakers vs. Nuggets on Prime Video
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