Who Could Dethrone National Champion Indiana Next Year + NBA and MCBB Insights for Today’s Slate

Plus Luka Doncic has only scored under 30 points twice in a row twice this season

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Mendoza’s championship-winning scramble and dive will live on forever at Indiana

2. Game of the Day: Vanderbilt looks to regroup after first two losses of season

3. Scouting Report: Doncic rarely goes under 30 points twice in a row

4. By the Numbers: Defending champion Gators are back on track

5. Overtime: NFL will now have a record-tying 10 new head coaches next year

1. Leading Off

With a little under nine and a half minutes left and Indiana up three in the National Championship game, coach Curt Cignetti called a timeout and decided to go for it on 4th and 4 from the Miami 12 yard line rather than kick a field goal. The Hoosiers put the ball in quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s hands, and he scrambled and bounced around for about 10 yards, took a huge hit but broke the tackle, and then went airborne into the end zone to put Indiana up 24-14. “That’s why he won the Heisman Trophy,” ESPN play-by-play legend Chris Fowler affirmed on the broadcast. The play felt so much like a knockout blow that even the always stoic Cignetti celebrated a bit.

But the game wasn’t quite over. Despite being down from the start and never truly looking like they had a chance to win, the Hurricanes moved the ball across the 50 with about a minute left and behind by just six. But quarterback Carson Beck misjudged the coverage and Jamari Sharpe picked him off at the six yard line to seal the game, send the Hoosiers to 16-0, and deliver the most improbable of championships to Bloomington.

It’s never too early to look ahead at next season, where Ohio State and Notre Dame start as co-favorites to win the national title at +650 at FanDuel. Indiana is +700 to repeat, followed by Texas (+750), Oregon (+900), Georgia (+1100), LSU (+1400), Texas A&M (+1500), Texas Tech (+1600), and Miami (+1900).

On the Heisman front, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is the current favorite at +800. Carr finished his freshman campaign with 2,741 passing yards and a completion percentage over 66%. He threw 24 touchdowns to six interceptions and was fifth in the nation in passer rating.

After Carr comes the quarterback who led at most sportsbooks at this time last year, Texas’s Arch Manning (+850). He’s followed by Ohio State teammates Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, quarterback Josh Hoover, who is transferring from TCU to Indiana, and Oregon quarterback Dante Moore all at +1100. Unsurprisingly, 29 of the top 31 players on FanDuel’s board are quarterbacks, including multiple schools that currently have two signal callers that could be in contention until one is named a starter.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Game of the Day

Vandy Looks to Shake Off End to Undefeated Campaign, Arkansas is 10-0 at Home

A week ago Vanderbilt was a top-10 undefeated team, looking just as much of a Cinderella as the school’s football team. Then the Commodores lost by 16 at unranked Texas and 98-94 at home to then-No. 19 Florida. A trip to Arkansas is rarely what a team that needs to regroup wants to see on its schedule, but that’s what Vanderbilt has tonight. The 20th-ranked Razorbacks are coming off of a 14-point loss to No. 21 Georgia and are 3-4 against the AP Top 25. But they’re also 10-0 at home this season.

Vanderbilt is led by sophomore Tyler Tanner and senior Duke Miles, who both average over 17 points per game. Arkansas is one of the most top-heavy teams in the nation, with only three players averaging double-figures in scoring: Freshmen guards Darius Acuff Jr. (19.8, good for 35th in the country) and Meleek Thomas (15.3) and senior forward Trevon Brazile (13.1 points and a team-high 6.4 rebounds).

No. 15 Vanderbilt (16-2, 3-2 SEC) vs. No. 20 Arkansas (13-5, 3-2 SEC)
9pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: VAN (+1.5, -110), ARK (-1.5, -110)

  • 65% of the money and 62% of the bets are with ARK

  • ATS | VAN (road): 3-2, ARK (home): 8-2

• Moneyline: VAN +106, ARK -128

• Total (172.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • VAN: 10-8, ARK: 10-8

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• VAN G Tyler Tanner | Points: 17.4 (20, 17, 20, 29, 19), Reb: 3.6 (3, 3, 3, 3, 4), Ast: 5.2 (5, 2, 3, 7, 14)

• VAN G Duke Miles | Points: 17.3 (15, 21, 17, 19, 17), Reb: 3.0 (6, 3, 1, 4, 1), Ast: 4.4 (4, 4, 5, 1, 9)

• ARK G Darius Acuff Jr. | Points: 19.8 (20, 18, 19, 26, 29), Reb: 3.0 (6, 4, 1, 0, 3), Ast: 6.3 (6, 13, 1, 9, 4)

• ARK G Meleek Thomas | Points: 15.3 (9, 21, 17, 13, 18), Reb: 3.6 (6, 4, 3, 1, 3), Ast: 2.8 (3, 2, 4, 2, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Season average (Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Doncic Has Back-to-Back Sub-30 Point Performances Just Twice This Season

Lakers G Luka Doncic (at Nuggets)

• Doncic is scoring nearly two points a game higher in January than he did in December, and going back to the end of last month has 30+ in eight of 11 matchups. He scored just 25 points on an 8-23 shooting effort on Sunday but only has back-to-back games under 30 points twice all season. The Nuggets looked worn out in Sunday’s 110-87 loss to Charlotte, which was their 11th game having to pick up the slack with Nikola Jokic, and others, injured and out of the lineup.

• Points: 32.5 (33.3 - 25, 39, 27, 42, 24), Reb: 6.5 (7.5 - 2, 3, 5, 7, 9), Ast: 8.5 (8.6 - 7, 4, 12, 8, 9)

• DEN - L1 (6-4 L10) | Points Allowed: 117.0 (19th), Reb Allowed: 43.0 (9th), Ast Allowed: 27.1 (19th)

Rockets G Amen Thompson (vs. Spurs)

• With Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama clogging up the middle, looking at a Rockets’ guard in this matchup could make sense. Thompson has scored 20+ points in seven of 10 games this month, and his rebounds are up but assists are down. He had a rough shooting night when these teams played in early November (4 for 12) which limited his scoring ability (14 points). The Spurs are a solid defensive team overall but just gave up 55 points to Anthony Edwards on Saturday and 30 to Keyonte George yesterday.

• Points: 16.5 (18.6 - 20, 14, 13, 23, 31), Reb: 7.5 (7.7 - 8, 7, 9, 5, 13), Ast: 5.5 (5.1 - 6, 4, 3, 2, 6)

• SA - W3 (6-4 L10) | Points Allowed: 112.7 (7th), Reb Allowed: 42.8 (8th), Ast Allowed: 26.2 (12th)

Blue Jackets D Zach Werenski (vs. Senators)

• Werenski has 19 assists in his last 19 games and four over his last four. His shots are slightly down this month compared to last (3.33 to 3.5), but he has 20 across his last five appearances. Werenski had two assists and two shots in a 6-3 Ottawa win in mid-December. The Senators have allowed fewer shots than all but three teams, but they allow more of them to go into the net than any other club with an NHL-worst .870 save percentage. Ottawa has allowed 4+ in three straight games.

• 3+ Shots on Goal: -196 (3.7 - 2, 5, 5, 3, 5), Anytime Goal: +250 (0.4 - 0, 1, 1, 0, 0), Points: TBA (1.2 - 1, 1, 3, 1, 0)

• OTT - L2 (4-4-2 L10) | Goals Allowed: 3.40 (29th), Shots Allowed: 1,212 (4th), Save Percentage: .870 (32nd)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

Surging Clippers Have Won 13 of 15, Look to Finish Mini-Road Trip With a Victory Without Leonard

NBA

Lakers (25-16, 13-8 Away) vs. Nuggets (29-14, 12-7 Home)

• LAL (-2, -110), DEN (+2, -110): 88% of the money and 51% of the bets are with LAL

  • ATS | LAL (road): 11-10, DEN (home): 10-9

• Total (228.5) | LAL: 25-16 (116.3 ppg), DEN: 27-16 (121.7 ppg)

Clippers (18-23, 7-14 Away) vs. Bulls (20-22, 13-9 Home)

• LAC (+3.5, -112), CHI (-3.5, -108): 82% of the money is with CHI but 56% of the bets are with LAC

  • ATS | LAC (road): 11-11, CHI (home): 12-10

• Total (226.5) | LAC: 21-21 (112.5 ppg), CHI: 19-23 (117.4 ppg)

Spurs (29-13, 13-8 Away) vs. Rockets (25-15, 14-3 Home)

• SA (+3.5, -114), HOU (-3.5, -106): 52% of the money and 67% of the bets are with SA

  • ATS | SA (road): 10-10-1, HOU (home): 7-10

• Total (222.5) | SA: 18-25 (117.8 ppg), HOU: 19-21 (117.1 ppg)

MCBB

UCF (14-3, 3-2 Big 12) vs. No. 9 Iowa State (16-2, 3-2 Big 12)

• UCF (+13.5, -108), ISU (-13.5, -112): 67% of the money and 56% of the bets are with ISU

  • ATS | UCF (road): 2-1, ISU (home): 4-5-1

• Total (156.5) | UCF: 6-11 (85.2 ppg), ISU: 9-9 (85.6 ppg)

Indiana (12-6, 3-4 Big Ten) vs. No. 3 Michigan (16-1, 6-1 Big Ten)

• IND (+15.5, -102), UM (-15.5, -120): 65% of the money and 53% of the bets are with UM

  • ATS | IND (road): 1-3, UM (home): 6-2

• Total (163.5) | IND: 9-9 (81.6 ppg), UM: 7-10 (93.1 ppg)

LSU (13-5, 1-4 SEC) vs. No. 16 Florida (13-5, 4-1 SEC)

• LSU (+14.5, -102), UF (-14.5, -120): 76% of the money and 53% of the bets are with UF

  • ATS | LSU (road): 3-0, UF (home): 3-5

• Total (158.5) | LSU: 8-10 (84.6 ppg), UF: 8-10 (86.5 ppg)

NC State (12-6, 3-2 ACC) vs. No. 18 Clemson (16-3, 6-0 ACC)

• NCST (+3.5, -110), CLEM (-3.5, -110): 63% of the money and 78% of the bets are with CLEM

  • ATS | NCST (road): 1-2, CLEM (home): 5-4-1

• Total (141.5) | NCST: 9-9 (85.8 ppg), CLEM: 8-11 (77.2 ppg)

No. 12 Texas Tech (14-4, 4-1 Big 12) vs. Baylor (11-6, 1-4 Big 12)

• TTU (-2.5, -102), BAY (+2.5, -120): 73% of the money and 81% of the bets are with TTU

  • ATS | TTU (road): 1-2, BAY (home): 4-5

• Total (155.5) | TTU: 8-10 (83.4 ppg), BAY: 10-6 (87.1 ppg)

No. 21 Georgia (15-3, 3-2 SEC) vs. Missouri (13-5, 3-2 SEC)

• UGA (-1.5, -104), MIZ (+1.5, -118): 52% of the money and 65% of the bets are with UGA

  • ATS | UGA (road): 2-1, MIZ (home): 6-5

• Total (165.5) | UGA: 10-8 (96.0 ppg), MIZ: 7-11 (81.2 ppg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• It turns out there was in fact another surprise NFL head coach firing, as the Bills let go Sean McDermott after nine seasons. Buffalo missed out on the John Harbaugh sweepstakes (and he might be regretting not drawing out the contract talks with the Giants a little longer), but decided that at least one playoff win six years in a row wasn’t enough. The Bills doubled-down on the fact that they don’t see their issues as a talent problem, as they promoted general manager Brandon Beane to president of football operations. The NFL will now tie a record with 10 new head coaches and would break it if a team decides McDermott is a better choice than their incumbent.

• Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud’s nightmare of a first half on Sunday could have cost him more than his team’s first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game. Stroud is up for an extension this offseason that could pay him about $55 million per year. Houston probably isn’t willing to give up on Stroud after three seasons so a huge, new contract is still likely. But Stroud has more doubters today than he did last week.

• Arizona is the AP Top 25 men’s college basketball poll’s unanimous No. 1 for the first time in school history. The two previously undefeated schools that each dropped both games they played last week tumbled down the rankings, with Iowa State falling from 2nd to 9th and Vanderbilt losing five spots and ending up 15th. But North Carolina saw the biggest plunge — eight spots down after a West Coast swing left them with losses to Stanford and California. Clemson made the biggest jump, moving up four places to 18th.

• Are the Pistons one player away from being a title favorite this year? Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo Sports lays out eight potential trade targets that could make Detroit tough to beat. Pelicans forward Trey Murphy tops the list, with Blazers forward Jerami Grant coming in at eighth. Read the full piece to see the rest of the options.

• The NBA is trying another new version of its All-Star Game, and this time it’ll be the United States vs. the World. The first 10 starters were announced yesterday and included Stephen Curry, Cade Cunningham, and Jaylen Brown on the U.S. side and Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and Luka Doncic representing the World. Not on the initial list: LeBron James, who wasn’t selected as a starter for the first time in 22 years. NBA head coaches will decide the final 14 spots.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 3pm: Inter Milan vs. Arsenal [Champions League] on Paramount+

• 7pm: LSU vs. No. 19 Florida [MCBB] on ESPN2 (or No. 25 Seton Hall vs. St. John’s [MCBB] on FS1)

• 7:30pm: Bruins vs. Stars on TNT

• 8pm: Spurs vs. Rockets on NBC

• 9pm: No. 10 Vanderbilt vs. No 17 Arkansas [MCBB] on ESPN (or No. 15 Texas Tech vs. Baylor [MCBB] on Peacock)

• 10pm: Lakers vs. Nuggets on NBC (or Devils vs. Oilers on TNT)

• 11pm: UNLV vs. No. 23 Utah State [MCBB] on FS1