Insights and Players to Watch for Tonight’s College Football National Championship

We also have trends and odds across the TV-heavy MLK Day NBA and NHL slate

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The schools that missed out on Curt Cignetti

2. Game of the Day: Indiana looks to win title against Miami in Miami

3. Scouting Report: 76ers’ Embiid scored season-high in last matchup against Pacers

4. By the Numbers: Cavs are NBA-worst 7-17 ATS at home

5. Overtime: Aaron Rodgers Watch is back

1. Leading Off

In 2023, the Indiana head coaching job was probably considered the worst in college football. From a historical perspective, the Hoosiers lost more games than any other major program in the sport. More recently, the school had just three winning seasons in the past 29 years — one of which was the Covid-shortened campaign in 2020 — and just nine victories in the last three seasons combined.

Terry Hoeppner, who never had a losing season in six with Miami (Ohio), only lasted two years at Indiana. Former LSU coach Gerry DiNardo was fired after three. Cam Cameron, who would go on to a successful coordinator career in the NFL, was 18-37 in five years with Indiana in the late 1990s to early 2000s. Because of that history the Hoosiers’ job became hard to fill, so their last two openings were taken by coordinators with no head coaching experience.

After firing the second of those coaches, Tom Allen (who was a good-for-Indiana 33-49 in eight seasons), Indiana moved quickly to hire James Madison’s Curt Cignetti on November 30, 2023, which was pretty early in the usual coaching carousel timeline. Whether Indiana knew what they were getting and wanted to pounce before other schools figured it out or decided to move forward before Cignetti realized what a bad job it was will likely never be publicly known.

But Cignetti has completed the most impressive and unexpected turnaround in college football, if not sports, history, and is one win a way from delivering Indiana a national championship. His 26 wins in two seasons are more than the Hoosiers had in the past five years combined and matches the program’s total in the eight seasons Cameron and DiNardo were in charge.

Nearly every athletic director at a major program that made a hire ahead of the 2024 season is probably regretting that they didn’t beat Indiana to Cignetti. There’s UCLA and Michigan State, which already fired the coaches they hired then. Mississippi State has just seven wins with Jeff Lebby in charge. Boston College is 9-16 under former NFL head coach Bill O’Brien. Arizona (Brent Brennan) and Syracuse (Fran Brown) are both 13-12 in two seasons. Duke just won the ACC under Manny Diaz and Washington is doing fine with Jedd Fisch (15-11), but they’d both likely make the switch. Even two College Football Playoff participants, Alabama and Texas A&M, would probably consider trading Kalen DeBoer and Mike Elko, respectively, for the enigmatic coach at this point.

Every single one of those jobs was better than Indiana’s opening, so it’s likely Cignetti would have taken any of them before heading to Bloomington. Whether or not he’s lottery-winner lucky or knew exactly what he was doing, Indiana athletic director Scott Dolson’s decision to hire Cignetti has made him a hero at his alma mater. A national championship isn’t necessary to call this the best coaching decision in recent memory, but the fact that it would be shocking for Indiana not to win the title shows how monumental Cignetti taking the job was for college football.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. With the football season winding down, Sportspage is returning to publishing four days per week: Monday-Thursday. We’ll have special editions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday during big events and packed sports days.

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2. Game of the Day

Mendoza Has More TDs (8) Than Incompletions (5) in CFP, Faces Plucky Miami

Miami is looking for its sixth title, while until this season Indiana had the most losses in the history of college football. But it’s the Hoosiers who have been historically dominant in the College Football Playoff and bring the Heisman Trophy winner to the National Championship game. The Hurricanes were the last team selected to be in the CFP and easily could have lost two of its three CFP matchups. That’s why the spread has ballooned to 7.5-points in favor of Indiana in tonight’s championship game being played in Miami’s home stadium.

The Hoosiers have scored 94 points in their two postseason matchups compared to 58 for the Hurricanes in three contests (though they’ve increased their scoring in each one). Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has more touchdowns (8) than incompletions (5) in the CFP and hasn’t thrown an interception. Miami started the CFP dominant on defense, giving up just three points to Texas A&M and 14 to defending national champion Ohio State, but then allowed 27 to an Ole Miss squad in turmoil.

No. 10 Miami (13-2) vs. No. 1 Indiana (15-0)
7:30pm on ESPN

The Odds

• Spread: MIA (+7.5, -110), IND (-7.5, -110)

  • 77% of the money and 67% of the bets are with IND

  • ATS | MIA: 10-5, IND: 10-5

• Moneyline: MIA +260, IND -320

• Total (47.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • MIA: 6-9, IND: 9-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• MIA QB Carson Beck | Pass Yards: 199.5 (238.7 - 268, 138, 103, 267, 320), Pass Attempts: 29.5 (29.0 - 37, 26, 20, 29, 32), Pass TD: 1.5 (1.9 - 2, 1, 1, 3, 4)

• MIA RB Mark Fletcher Jr. | Rush Yards: 69.5 (83.1 - 133, 90, 172, 30, 19), Anytime TD: +120 (0.9 - 0, 1, 0, 1, 1)

• IND QB Fernando Mendoza | Pass Yards: 223.5 (223.2 - 177, 192, 222, 117, 299), Pass Attempts: 24.5 (23.5 - 20, 16, 23, 15, 24), Pass TD: 1.5 (2.7 - 5, 3, 1, 2, 4)

• IND WR Elijah Sarratt | Rec Yards: 56.5 (66.8 - 75, 40, 37, 41, 7), Receptions: 4.5 (5.2 - 7, 4, 3, 3, 2), Anytime TD: -115 (1.3 - 2, 1, 1, 1, 1)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

3. Scouting Report

Healthy Embiid is Scoring Steadily for 76ers, More Will Be on Clippers’ Other Star Today

76ers C Joel Embiid (vs. Pacers)

• Embiid is healthy and getting more consistent. He hasn’t scored under 20 points since early December and put in 26+ in five of seven games. Embiid had gone five straight contests with at least seven rebounds before the last two, but now is matched up against the third-worst team in the NBA at preventing rebounds. He scored a season-high 39 points and added nine rebounds and three assists when these teams played on December 12th in a 115-105 Philadelphia win.

• Points: 26.5 (24.0 - 33, 20, 27, 22, 28), Reb: 8.5 (6.9 - 5, 4, 8, 9, 7), Ast: 3.5 (3.3 - 3, 3, 4, 3, 2)

• IND - L1 (4-6 L10) | Points Allowed: 118.4 (24th), Reb Allowed: 47.3 (28th), Ast Allowed: 25.3 (8th)

Clippers G James Harden (at Wizards)

• Like the surging Clippers, who have won five straight and 12 of 14, Harden is heating up. He averaged nearly 30 points per game in November before dropping to 23.5 in December. He’s up to 24.5 in January and 27.0 over his past five. Harden scored just 22 points when these teams met on Wednesday, but that was only because he shot under 30% — he was still an active part of the offense. Kawhi Leonard won’t play today due to knee irritation, so more will be on Harden. The Wizards have allowed 26+ points to six players over their past five games.

• Points: 28.5 (25.8 - 31, 22, 32, 19, 31), Reb: 4.5 (4.7 - 2, 5, 4, 7, 4), Ast: 9.5 (8.1 - 10, 8, 10, 7, 6)

• WAS - L6 (3-7 L10) | Points Allowed: 123.9 (29th), Reb Allowed: 47.5 (30th), Ast Allowed: 29.1 (29th)

Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon (vs. Capitals)

• Colorado leads the NHL with 4.00 goals per game and MacKinnon is responsible for nearly half of that, averaging 1.8 points per outing. He’s taken four or more shots in five of seven matchups in January and has seven assists across his past four. The Capitals are giving up nearly a half a goal more per game in January than what they average on the season and have allowed 3+ in three of four.

• Shots: 4.5 (4.6 - 4, 3, 8, 5, 5), Anytime Goal: +115 (0.8 - 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Points: TBA (1.8 - 1, 3, 0, 4, 0)

• WAS - L2 (4-5-1 L10) | Goals Against: 2.82 (8th), Shots Against: 27.9 (20th), Save Percentage: .907 (6th)

*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - last 5 games from most recent to oldest)

4. By the Numbers

2 of 4 Highest-Scoring Teams Face Off in NBA + Stats for NHL Afternoon Doubleheader on TNT

NBA

Bucks (17-24, 8-14 Away) vs. Hawks (20-24, 7-12 Home)

• MIL (+2.5, -110), ATL (-2.5, -110): 54% of the money is with ATL but 56% of the bets are with MIL

  • ATS | MIL (road): 10-12, ATL (home): 7-12

• Total (232.5) | MIL: 17-24 (112.4 ppg), ATL: 23-21 (117.6 ppg)

Thunder (35-8, 15-5 Away) vs. Cavaliers (24-19, 14-10 Home)

• OKC (-6.5, -108), CLE (+6.5, -112): 57% of the money is with OKC but 51% of the bets are with CLE

  • ATS | OKC (road): 9-11, CLE (home): 7-17

• Total (234.5) | OKC: 21-22 (121.1 ppg), CLE: 20-23 (120.0 ppg)

Mavericks (17-26, 4-14 Away) vs. Knicks (25-17, 16-5 Home)

• DAL (+10, -110), NYK (-10, -110): 70% of the money is with NYK but 56% of the bets are with DAL

  • ATS | DAL (road): 5-13, NYK (home): 14-7

• Total (229.5) | DAL: 19-24 (114.2 ppg), NYK: 24-19 (118.4 ppg)

Celtics (26-15, 14-8 Away) vs. Pistons (30-10, 16-4 Home)

• BOS (+3.5, -114), DET (-3.5, -106): 56% of the money and 61% of the bets are with BOS

  • ATS | BOS (road): 14-8, DET (home): 11-9

• Total (223.5) | BOS: 18-23 (117.0 ppg), DET: 17-23 (117.7 ppg)

Heat (22-20, 7-13 Away) vs. Warriors (24-19, 16-6 Home)

• MIA (+6.5, -112), GSW (-6.5, -108: 52% of the money is with GSW but 65% of the bets are with MIA

  • ATS | MIA (road): 11-9, GSW (home): 13-9

• Total (238.5) | MIA: 20-22 (119.5 ppg), GSW: 24-19 (116.2 ppg)

MCBB

Providence (9-9, 2-5 Big East) vs. Marquette (6-13, 1-7 Big East)

• PROV (+1.5, -112), MAR (-1.5, -108): 62% of the money and 58% of the bets are with PROV

  • ATS | PROV (road): 2-2, MAR (home): 3-8

• Total (166.5) | PROV: 13-5 (88.9 ppg), MAR: 10-9 (74.3 ppg)

George Washington (12-6, 3-2 A-10) vs. George Mason (17-1, 5-0 A-10)

• GW (+2.5, -105), GM (-2.5, -115): 75% of the money and 69% of the bets are with GM

  • ATS | GW (road): 1-2, GM (home): 6-5

• Total (154.5) | GW: 10-7 (87.1 ppg), GM: 9-8 (78.8 ppg)

Saint Joseph’s (11-7, 3-2 A-10) vs. VCU (12-6, 3-2 A-10)

• STJ (+15.5, -118), VCU (-15.5, -104): 58% of the money and 72% of the bets are with STJ

  • ATS | STJ (road): 2-4, VCU (home): 5-6

• Total (152.5) | STJ: 6-10 (74.6 ppg), VCU: 11-7 (85.2 ppg)

NHL

Sabres (26-16-5, 10-10-2 Away) vs. Hurricanes (30-15-4, 17-8-1 Home)

• BUF (+1.5, -152), CAR (-1.5, +124): 70% of the bets are with CAR but 51% of the money is with BUF

  • ATS | BUF (road): 10-12, CAR (home): 10-16

• Moneyline | BUF +158, CAR -192: 51% of the money and 78% of the bets are with CAR

• Total (6.5) | BUF: 24-23 (3.28 gpg), CAR: 26-23 (3.41 gpg)

Capitals (24-19-6, 10-9-3 Away) vs. Avalanche (33-5-8, 19-1-3 Home)

• WAS (+1.5, -150), COL (-1.5, +122): 98% of the money and 79% of the bets are with COL

  • ATS | WAS (road): 14-8, COL (home): 15-8

• Moneyline | WAS +168, COL -205: 97% of the money and 89% of the bets are with COL

• Total (6.5) | WAS: 23-26 (3.20 gpg), COL: 21-25 (4.00 gpg)

5. Overtime

In the News

• Aaron Rodgers Watch is back after an extended version last year. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that “Steelers players are more than open to Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh.” The 42-year-old will almost certainly wait until the Steelers hire a new coach before making a decision (one option is former Packers and Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy). Rodgers threw for the fewest yards and touchdowns in a full season since he became a starter in 2008, but his 94.8 passer rating was his best since 2021.

• An in-person meeting between power conference leaders didn’t help end the deadlock on how to expand the College Football Playoff. The Big Ten wants to double the current allotment and move to 24 teams, while the SEC prefers a 16-school tournament. Conference championship games are on the chopping block in either scenario, but especially with a field that covers nearly the entire Top 25. The already-extended deadline is Friday, which ESPN, the CFP’s current broadcast partner, could move back again if the company wants to give the executives more time.

• Miami defensive back Xavier Lucas, who has the most pass deflections on the team and is eighth in tackles, is suspended for the first half of the College Football Playoff national championship game because he was called for a targeting foul in the fourth quarter of the win over Ole Miss. Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal disagreed with the call at the time and thinks the punishment should be reevaluated either way. “We feel it was unjustly administered, and now it impacts the last game of the season,” the coach said.

• The Grizzlies want to offload Ja Morant, and he did a good job showing he’s worth something in return in his first game back since January 2nd. Morant scored 24 points on 7-13 shooting and tied a season-high with 13 assists in the NBA’s London game yesterday. He’s only played in 19 of Memphis’s 41 contests this season. After starting no fewer than 57 games in his first four seasons, he had 59 combined over the past two years and his pace this campaign isn’t any better.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 12pm: No. 14 Ohio State vs. No. 10 TCU [WCBB] on FOX

• 1pm: Bucks vs. Hawks on Peacock

• 1:30pm: Sabres vs. Hurricanes on TNT

• 2:30pm: Thunder vs. Cavaliers on NBC (or No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt [WCBB] on FOX)

• 3pm: Brighton vs. Bournemouth on USA

• 4pm: Capitals vs. Avalanche on TNT

• 5pm: Mavericks vs. Knicks on NBC (or No. 23 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 UConn [WCBB] on FOX)

• 7:30pm: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana [CFP Championship] on ESPN

• 8pm: Celtics vs. Pistons on NBC

• 11:15pm: Australian Open on ESPN2