Previewing the NCAA Tournament

No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Arizona and No. 3 Michigan are the favorites to win the NCAA title with little-to-no distance between the three of them at nearly all sportsbooks (+360 to +370) and prediction markets. Defending champion Florida (+750 to +850), ranked fourth and the remaining top seed, is the only other school to have odds under +1000 as the tournament is set to begin.

All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four last season for only the second time since seeding began in 1979 (it also happened in 2008). But oddsmakers are looking for the rare occurrence to repeat: Duke, Arizona and Michigan are all -135 to reach Indianapolis while Florida is +170. Last year’s runner up, Houston, is a two seed and has the next-best odds at +210.

— Abe Rakov

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Today we’re highlighting the six players in each region that could have the biggest impact in the first and second round matchups this week:

Wes Enis, South Florida (No. 11 vs. No. 6 Louisville)

A year ago, Enis was playing Division II basketball at Lincoln Memorial. On Thursday, he’ll be the reason South Florida either pulls off a first round upset or goes home quietly. Enis has posted 20-point performances seven times during USF’s 11-game winning streak, hitting three or more threes in 19 of 31 games.

Louisville lives and dies by the three-ball, shooting it at the fourth-highest rate in the country and going 7-8 this season when they fall below 35% from deep. South Florida has held opponents to 33.9% from three all year. Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville’s best creator, is dealing with a back injury that has kept him out of four straight games (including the ACC Tournament), and his status for Thursday is uncertain.

Bruce Thornton, Ohio State (No. 8 vs. No. 9 TCU)

Ohio State has dramatically increased Thornton’s off-ball usage to the 72nd percentile (up from 16th a year ago), with his catch-and-shoot efficiency ranking in the 92nd percentile nationally. He’s averaging 22.5 points over his last 10 games, and the matchup sets him up to approach that number again: TCU is 126th in scoring defense at 72.1 points per contest.

In a rarity in today’s college basketball, Thornton is a four-year starter for the Buckeyes. He’s increased his shooting percentage from 45.6% in 35 games as a freshman to nearly 56% in 33 as a senior (he has 135 starts in his career). Ohio State had won four in a row before losing by just four to rival Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.

Tyler Bilodeau and Themus Fulks, UCLA (No. 7) vs. UCF (No. 10)

These two players get one entry because they’re playing the same role from opposite directions, and whoever has the better night will largely decide who advances. Bilodeau suffered a mild right knee sprain in the Big Ten quarterfinals, with MRI results showing no structural damage. He’s cleared to play, but UCLA coach Mick Cronin said he would have been “playing hurt” if he was on the court last Saturday. UCLA’s offense ranks second in the country in adjusted efficiency since mid-February when Bilodeau and point guard Donovan Dent are healthy.

That uncertainty gives UCF an opening. Fulks accounts for over 37% of UCF’s total scoring production (14.1 points and 6.7 assists) for an offense that beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse and scores 81 points per game. Fulks closed out the regular season scoring 22+ in three of five matchups.

Trey Campbell, Northern Iowa (No. 12 vs. No. 5 St. John’s)

A big caveat: Northern Iowa is 0-5 against the KenPom top 100. But St. John’s is below the national average in both two-point and three-point shooting percentage, and UNI’s defense ranks top-five nationally in three-point percentage allowed, exactly the kind of unit that makes a shaky offense worse.

Campbell averaged 17.8 points during his MVC tournament run, well above his season average of 13.7. The gap between those two numbers could be the difference between an upset and a comfortable St. John’s win.

Darryn Peterson, Kansas (No. 4 vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist then potentially No. 5 St. John’s)

If chalk holds in San Diego, the superstar freshman gets the matchup the bracket wants: a Round of 32 game against Zuby Ejiofor, the Big East’s best player and a former Jayhawk.

Kansas’s biggest weakness is their inability to find a consistent second scorer when Peterson is out. Both Duke and UConn beat the Jayhawks this season in games Peterson missed. St. John’s ranks 12th nationally in defensive efficiency and will make Kansas earn everything. If Peterson gets to 24 or so points, Kansas wins and gets its first second-weekend appearance since their 2022 title. If he settles into a quiet 14, Pitino is the story of the night.

Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State (No. 3 vs. No. 14 North Dakota State then Louisville or South Florida)

Fears leads all of Division I in assists and just broke Michigan State’s single-season record. He’s also scored 21+ points in four straight games entering the tournament. The Spartans’ margin without him is essentially zero, so they desperately need him on offense.

Round 2 would bring whichever team survives the Louisville-South Florida game, and both play at a pace that opens the floor for the kind of transition game Michigan State runs best. Fears averages 15.7 points and 9.2 assists per game. A slight improvement, a 20-point, double-digit assist night, should punch coach Tom Izzo’s ticket to the Sweet 16.

Bennett Stirtz, Iowa (No. 9 vs. No. 8 Clemson)

Stirtz followed coach Ben McCollum from Division II to Drake to Iowa, and the moves have paid off. He’s the only player in the country this season with at least 625 points, 135 assists, 75 threes, 75 rebounds and 45 steals. Iowa plays at the 350th-slowest pace in the country, which means almost every Stirtz possession matters for his points total. Expect him to exceed his 20.2 average against a suddenly shorter Clemson frontcourt, center Carter Welling tore his ACL in the ACC Tournament, and if he does, Iowa is likely to advance.

One thing to watch: The Hawkeyes were 0-5 in games where Stirtz shot below 40% from the field, and only 27 teams in the country give up fewer points than Clemson.

Terrence Hill Jr., VCU (No. 11 vs. No. 6 North Carolina)

Hill shoots 36.1% from three on 5.9 attempts per game and faces a defense that just allowed Clemson to shoot nearly 50% from deep in the ACC quarterfinals. Seven VCU players logged at least 55% of available minutes and all but one shot better than 35% from three. VCU’s depth is real, but Hill’s performance will determine if there’s an upset. He doesn’t need to score 25 because of that depth, so an 18-point-or-so outing could make the brackets go sideways.

UNC ranked 242nd nationally in opponent three-point percentage, and freshman phenom Caleb Wilson, a projected top-five draft pick, is out for the postseason after undergoing surgery on a broken thumb. Without Wilson, the Tar Heels drop from 21st to 32nd overall, per Hoop Explorer.

Henri Veesaar, North Carolina (No. 6 vs. No. 11 VCU)

Veesaar’s ceiling is the only reason the Tar Heels can survive short-handed. The junior center put up 28 points and 17 rebounds in the loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament and is a legitimate NBA-caliber interior presence who can score in the post, step out on the perimeter, and rebound at an elite level. VCU is deep and balanced but doesn’t have an answer for a skilled seven-footer who can stretch the floor.

The Tar Heels’ bench has combined to score in single-digits in back-to-back games. This is a game where Veesaar either goes for 24 and prolongs what looks to be a lost season, or he gets neutralized by VCU’s length and the Rams pull the upset.

Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt (No. 5 vs. No. 12 McNeese)

Tanner didn’t start a single game last season, but now he’s a projected first-round pick averaging 19.1 points and 5.1 assists. The committee gave Vanderbilt one of the tournament’s more uncomfortable 5-12 draws, though. McNeese leads the nation in both defensive turnover rate and steal rate. The Cowboys play at a tempo and pressure level that most teams haven’t seen.

But Vanderbilt’s Tanner and senior Duke Miles commit the 11th-fewest turnovers nationally, by far the best number of any opponent McNeese has faced. Vanderbilt is widely considered one of the most underseeded teams in the bracket having just beat defending champion Florida by 17 in the SEC semifinals. If Tanner exploits McNeese’s porous perimeter defense and gets to 24+, Vanderbilt should cruise into the second round. If the Cowboys’ pressure rattles him into uncharacteristic turnovers … this is a 5-12 matchup after all.

Mikey Lewis, Saint Mary’s (No. 7 vs. No. 10 Texas A&M)

This game is getting far less attention than it deserves. Texas A&M is a veteran-laden squad, as its three leading scorers are seniors. The Aggies’ 35.6 bench points per game is the most by any power conference team over the past decade. Saint Mary’s is 1-4 in Quad 1 games this season, so it’s uncertain at best that the WCC team can handle an aggressive, deep SEC squad.

But that’s where Lewis, who has averaged 22.6 points over Saint Mary’s last five games, comes in. He scored 31 against Gonzaga in the regular-season finale to clinch the WCC title. Lewis is a high-volume, high-efficiency perimeter weapon who can get hot in a hurry. Saint Mary’s plays at the 297th-slowest pace in the country and its offense relies on fewer players than most tournament teams. When Lewis scores, the Gaels are a different team. When he doesn’t, they don’t have the volume to grind out a win against even a middle-of-the road SEC squad.

Kingston Flemings, Houston (No. 2 vs. Saint Mary’s or Texas A&M in Round 2)

The freshman leads Houston in scoring and was on a good offensive run before being shut down by Arizona on the Big 12 title game (8 points on 3-12 shooting). That matchup aside, he’s been quietly better in big games all season. Flemings’ assist rate and turnover rate both improve against tougher competition.

He also scores more in those matchups: He had 25 against Tennessee, 22 at Iowa State, 21 against Kansas and Arkansas, 19 at BYU, and 42 at Texas Tech when the Red Raiders were 12th.

AJ Dybantsa, BYU (No. 6 vs. No. 11 Texas/NC State)

The nation’s leading scorer at 25.3 points per game enters the tournament as the most compelling argument for why a 6-seed can make a Final Four run. BYU has lost two key players to torn ACLs this season, including senior Richie Saunders (who was averaging 18 points per game before going down in February). What’s left is essentially the freshman and a supporting cast: It’s sophomore guard Robert Wright III, a few capable role players, and Dybantsa, who just scored 93 points across three Big 12 Tournament games to break Kevin Durant’s Big 12 Tournament record.

Dybantsa’s first-round opponent is a First Four survivor: either 18-14 Texas or an NC State team that lost most of the pieces from its 2024 Final Four run. Neither defense is built to contain Dybantsa, who hasn’t scored under 20 points since January. He shoots 51.3% from the field and gets to the rim at will. He’ll score, the question is whether BYU’s depleted supporting cast can do enough around him.

Mason Falslev, Utah State (No. 9 vs. No. 8 Villanova)

This is the West’s closest first-round game on paper, with a BPI projection of Utah State winning by 0.4 points. In a bracket full of mismatches, this coin-flip matchup is worth watching.

Falslev won Mountain West Player of the Year for a reason: The 6-3 junior scores, rebounds, passes, and leads the conference in steals while shooting 41% from three. Utah State went 28-6, won the Mountain West regular season and tournament titles, and plays at a pace that generates 82.8 points per game. Villanova’s defense, meanwhile, ranks outside the top 150 in both two-point and three-point percentage allowed. The Wildcats were just outrebounded 46-25 by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament, a problem that Utah State’s physicality should exploit. Falslev playing above his 17.6 average against a porous defense he’s never seen isn’t a stretch.

Terry Anderson, High Point (No. 12 vs. No. 5 Wisconsin)

It’s unlikely anyone outside the Big South has watched Anderson play this season, but that’s the kind of anonymity that makes 5-12 upsets happen. The 6-6 senior forward averages 16 points and six rebounds on 56.4% shooting and is the returning veteran from last year’s High Point team that lost to Purdue in the first round (though he played just eight minutes). The Panthers went 30-4 this season, are riding a 14-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the country, and average 90 points per game at the 24th-fastest offensive pace in Division I.

High Point’s defense ranks 161st nationally and they didn’t face a single top-100 opponent all year, but Wisconsin’s vulnerabilities play right into Anderson’s hands. The Badgers rank outside the top 50 in KenPom defensive efficiency and have struggled in the interior all season. Wisconsin is the better team, but this is the most-circled potential upset in the region because of Anderson.

Nick Boyd, Wisconsin (No. 5 vs. No. 12 High Point)

Anderson is on this list because High Point is an upset pick. Boyd is here because Wisconsin wins this game if he plays up to the standard he set this season. The senior guard is averaging 20.6 points and 4.2 assists in a breakout campaign that has made him one of the more reliable offensive players in the Big Ten. The case for Boyd scoring above his average is straightforward: He’s facing the worst defense he’s played all season in a game projected to be one of the tournament’s fastest-paced.

A Boyd performance that gets Wisconsin past High Point sets up a probable second-round collision with Arkansas that has the makings of the best game of the weekend.

Darius Acuff, Arkansas (No. 4 vs. No. 13 Hawaii then Wisconsin or High Point)

Acuff is the most dangerous player in the West bracket to pick against. The SEC Player of the Year averaged 30.3 points and 7.7 assists per game across four conference tournament games, capping it with a 30-point, 11-assist performance in a win against Vanderbilt in the final. He is the first SEC player to lead the conference in both scoring and assists in the same season since Pete Maravich in 1970.

Round 1 against Hawaii presents an interesting wrinkle: The Rainbow Warriors run a no-help defensive scheme, which could remove Acuff’s ability to get into the paint and pull the defense toward him for kick-outs. If Acuff solves that, he’ll head to Round 2 carrying momentum. That next matchup, potentially against Wisconsin, could be the best game of the entire West bracket. Wisconsin’s Boyd would be the best defender Acuff faced all season.

Labaron Philon, Alabama (No. 4 vs. No. 13 Hofstra then Texas Tech or Akron)

Philon is a three-level scorer: 40% from three, 46% on floaters, 66% at the rim, and there’s no defensive scheme that can take away all of that at once. If Texas Tech advances, the second-round matchup would likely feature Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson vs. Philon in the marquee guard battle of the weekend: two projected top-20 NBA Draft picks, both shooting 40+ percent from three, in an elimination game.

On the other hand, Philon could explode if Akron gets the upset. Akron’s defense ranks 253rd in perimeter defense nationally, while Alabama attempts more threes than any team in the country, averages 91.7 points per game, and plays at the fourth-fastest tempo in college basketball.

Christian Anderson, Texas Tech (No. 5 vs. No. 12 Akron)

Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland is asking a lot of Anderson in Tampa on Friday. The sophomore averaged 18.9 points, 7.6 assists, shot 42.5% from three, and made first-team All-Big 12. But since February 17th, he’s been the only star on a team built around someone else. Without junior JT Toppin, opponents no longer collapse into the paint, and the two-man game that drove Anderson’s assist numbers isn’t there anymore.

But Anderson’s standalone talent is real. He put up 27 points in the win over Duke earlier this season, and Texas Tech’s three-point percentage ranks second in program history. If he finds his rhythm against an Akron squad that ranks outside the top 250 in three-point defense, Anderson will look like the preseason All-American candidate he was.

Tavari Johnson, Akron (No. 12 vs. No. 5 Texas Tech 5)

Akron is seventh nationally in scoring at 88.7 points per game, 14th in three-point percentage, and has won three straight MAC titles. All five players who logged meaningful minutes in the championship game are seniors, and they are on a 10-game winning streak. Johnson averaged 20.1 points and 5.0 assists to lead the MAC in scoring, shot 51% from the field, and earned MAC Tournament MVP after the Zips’ 79-76 championship win over Toledo.

Texas Tech has gone 3-3 since losing Toppin and his 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. The defense that ranked 31st nationally has slipped to 87th without Toppin’s rim protection. If Akron gets to the final five minutes with the lead, Johnson’s free-throw shooting and shot creation make him nearly impossible to stop. The Anderson-Johnson head-to-head is one of the Midwest’s best individual matchups in the first round.

Boopie Miller, SMU (No. 11 vs. Miami (OH) in First Four then No. 6 Tennessee)

The senior guard averaged 19.2 points and 6.4 assists against an ACC schedule and earned second-team all-conference. He has a favorable matchup against Miami (Ohio) in the First Four: The RedHawks rank 273rd nationally in opponent three-point percentage, and Miller has shot at least eight threes in three consecutive games. His scoring line is set at 20.5, a full point above his season average.

Win that, and Tennessee would come next. The Vols made back-to-back Elite Eights in 2024 and 2025, but this year’s team is a six-seed that struggled late in the season. Nate Ament and Ja’Kobi Gillespie are both NBA prospects, but Miller could be a real problem for a perimeter defense that’s been inconsistent all year. For SMU to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since the Larry Brown era, Miller has to put together back-to-back high-scoring performances in four days.

Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State (No. 2 vs. Kentucky/Santa Clara winner in Round 2)

Against Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals, Momcilovic, the best three-point shooter in the country at 49.6% on high volume, made eight threes in Iowa State’s 82-80 buzzer-beater loss. When he’s making shots, the Cyclones’ offense becomes nearly unsolvable. Iowa State also forces turnovers at one of the highest rates in the country and has the second-most efficient offense in college basketball.

Whoever survives the first-round matchup between No. 7 Kentucky and No. 10 Santa Clara faces a tough matchup against Momcilovic. If he’s is on, the region opens up for Iowa State. His shooting in Round 2 could determine whether a Cyclones-Wolverines Elite Eight matchup everyone is circling actually gets played.

Christian Hammond, Santa Clara (No. 10 vs. No. 7 Kentucky 7)

Santa Clara hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since Steve Nash was a senior in 1996, and the drought ended because of the play of Hammond. The redshirt sophomore guard averaged 15.8 points per game on 49% shooting and 40% from three. He’s the leading scorer and primary shot creator on a Broncos team that is 35th in KenPom, 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. He just scored 24 points in the WCC Championship loss to Gonzaga.

Kentucky arrives banged up and seeded seventh for the first time in program history. The Wildcats lost five of their last seven regular-season games but are still favored by 3.5 points. The Broncos actually grade higher than the Wildcats in both offensive and defensive efficiency per game. Hammond scoring at or above his average against a Kentucky defense that ranks 182nd nationally isn’t the long shot the seed line suggests. If he does, Santa Clara could end one of college basketball’s longer tournament win droughts.