In today’s newsletter…
1. Leading Off: Comparing Super Bowl odds
2. Game of the Day: Surging Sixers travel to LA just a half game back of 4th in East
3. Scouting Report: Hawks’ Johnson is on a roll and has a good matchup tonight
4. By the Numbers: No. 2 Michigan is a huge favorite but bettors aren’t fazed
5. Overtime: Checking in on the Super Bowl injury report
1. Leading Off
Super Bowl odds can vary a lot depending on where you’re looking, and those small differences can mean real money. So we’re starting off today’s newsletter by comparing a sportsbook with a sports prediction market.
Here’s how Novig currently stacks up against Caesars Sportsbook on some popular Super Bowl lines:
Novig | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|
Seahawks -4.5 | -102 | -112 |
Under 45.5 Points | -103 | -112 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 93.5 Receiving Yards | -101 | -110 |
Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD | -159 | -185 |
Drake Maye Over 30.5 Pass Attempts | -108 | -114 |
If you haven’t used a prediction market before, the main difference is who you’re going up against. Instead of placing bets against a casino, you’re competing with other players. That usually leads to better odds, especially on big games and player props. Some people use apps like Novig because sportsbooks aren’t available in their state. Others just like the odds. Either way, it’s an option worth considering.
If “prediction market” is new for you, here’s what the Novig app looks like:
On a programming note, we’re giving you two days of extra coverage this week: Tomorrow we’ll have an Olympics guide and then on Sunday you’ll get more Super Bowl coverage. So look for us in your inbox!
— Abe Rakov
2. Game of the Day
Embiid is Averaging 33 Points Per Game Over Past 8, Lakers Finally Home After Long Road Trip
Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Sixers are climbing up the Eastern Conference standings and are healthier than normal, giving the franchise the confidence to move the high-upside but oft-injured former No. 16 NBA Draft pick Jared McCain to the defending champion Thunder — who are dealing with a slew of injuries right now. Philadelphia has won five in a row and is just a half-game behind Cleveland for fourth in the conference. Center Joel Embiid has averaged nearly 33 points per game over his past eight and grabbed double-digit rebounds in three of six.
The Lakers are finally back home after a Grammys-induced eight-game road trip where they finished 5-3. LeBron James led the team in scoring for the first time in 10 games with 25 in a 125-109 win in Brooklyn to close out the trip, and Los Angeles now gets eight games at home.
76ers (29-21, 14-8 Away) vs. Lakers (30-19, 12-8 Home)
10pm
The Odds
Spread: PHI (+4, -110), LAL (-4, -110)
67% of the money and 56% of the bets are with LAL
ATS | PHI (road): 16-6, LAL (home): 11-9
Moneyline: PHI +150, LAL -178
Total (232.5): Over -110, Under -110
PHI: 25-25, LAL: 28-21
Head-to-Head
76ers | Lakers | |
|---|---|---|
Streak | W5 | W1 |
Last 10 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
Points/Game | 116.8 | 116.3 |
Opp Points/Game | 115.3 | 116.2 |
Rebounds/Game | 43.8 | 41.3 |
Opp Rebounds/Game | 44.7 | 41.0 |
Assists/Game | 25.0 | 25.1 |
Players to Watch
PHI G Tyrese Maxey | Points: 26.5 (28.9 - 14, 29, 18, 40, 22), Reb: 3.5 (4.2 - 4, 5, 5, 4, 3), Ast: 6.5 (6.8 - 3, 6, 8, 8, 9)
PHI C Joel Embiid (Q) | Points: 28.5 (26.1 - 24, 40, 37, 29, 38), Reb: 8.5 (7.4 - 5, 11, 5, 9, 11), Ast: 4.5 (3.8 - 3, 4, 8, 5, 5)
LAL G Luka Doncic | Points: 31.5 (33.4 - 24, 30, 37, 29, 46), Reb: 7.5 (7.9 - 6, 15, 11, 5, 7), Ast: 8.5 (8.7 - 5, 8, 13, 6, 12)
LAL F LeBron James | Points: 20.5 (22.0 - 25, 22, 20, 11, 24), Reb: 5.5 (5.7 - 3, 5, 3, 3, 5), Ast: 6.5 (6.7 - 7, 6, 6, 5, 3)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
In most states — even where online sportsbooks aren’t available — you can now make sports plays through prediction markets, where you trade against other users instead of a casino and usually get better odds. Ahead of the Super Bowl, Novig is offering Sportspage subscribers a match of up to $25 with the code SPLaunch.
3. Scouting Report
Michigan Transfer Has Led Wolverines All Year, Hawks Johnson Scored 31 In Last Matchup vs. Jazz
Yaxel Lendeborg | Nick King-Imagn Images
Michigan F Yaxel Lendeborg (vs. Penn State)
The UAB transfer has been steady for the No. 2 Wolverines all season, and after his second-best scoring performance of the year (26 vs. No. 7 Michigan State), Lendeborg now faces one of the worst defenses in college basketball. Prior to beating the rival Spartans, Lendeborg wasn’t on a good run — 12.3 points per game over four matchups — but he found his way to the free throw line a season-high 15 times in East Lansing. He scored just 10 points when Michigan and Penn State played about a month ago on 3-9 shooting, but it was an off game for the entire Wolverines’ squad in a 74-72 win (its closest victory since the second game of the season).
Points: 16.5 (14.7 - 26, 10, 18, 15, 6), Reb: 8.5 (7.2 - 12, 3, 9, 7, 10)
PSU - W1 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 78.4 (301st), Reb Allowed: 33.1 (94th), Ast Allowed: 16.7 (346)
Magic G Desmond Bane (vs. Nets)
Bane was shut down by the Thunder last time out, but he was on a great run until then and Oklahoma City can make any player look average. Prior to that seven-point performance, Bane was averaging over 23 points a night in a six-game stretch. He scored 19 points the first time these teams matched up this season but followed it up with just nine on 4-14 shooting when they played about a month ago. The good news? The last two times Bane has scored in single-digits he put in 32 and 23 the next games.
Points: 19.5 (19.2 - 7, 25, 32, 23, 19), Reb: 4.5 (4.3 - 2, 4, 1, 1, 4), Ast: 4.5 (4.3 - 2, 4, 2, 5, 0)
BKN - L2 (1-9 L10) | Points Allowed: 114.9 (13th), Reb Allowed: 43.0 (8th), Ast Allowed: 27.6 (25th)
Hawks F Jalen Johnson (vs. Jazz)
Johnson has scored over his season average in five of seven, averaging 25.6 during that stretch. He’s also notched two triple-doubles in a row and three straight double-doubles, and the Hawks have won five of six. Johnson scored 31 when these teams played early in the season, a 133-122 Atlanta win, and added 18 rebounds and 14 assists against a consistently hapless Utah defense. The Jazz have lost 10 of 12 and after two better-than-usual defense performances gave up 122 points to the Pacers on Tuesday — a team that averages the third-fewest in the league at 110.9.
Points: 23.5 (23.2 - 29, 33, 19, 15, 23), Reb: 10.5 (10.5 - 11, 11, 14, 7, 18), Ast: 7.5 (8.0 - 11, 10, 7, 6, 9)
UTA - W1 (2-8 L10) | Points Allowed: 126.9 (30th), Reb Allowed: 44.9 (18th), Ast Allowed: 30.6 (30th)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
4. By the Numbers
Bettors Are Behind Double-Digits Home Favorites in the NBA, Underdog Islanders in NHL
Cade Cunningham | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
NBA
Wizards (13-36, 4-19 Away) vs. Pistons (37-12, 20-5 Home)
WAS (+14.5, -110), DET (-14.5, -110): 88% of the money and 70% of the bets are with DET
ATS | WAS (road): 9-14, DET (home): 13-12
Total (226.5) | WAS: 25-24 (112.1 ppg), DET: 21-28 (117.5 ppg)
Nets (13-36, 7-18 Away) vs. Magic (25-24, 14-8 Home)
BKN (+11.5, -108), ORL (-11.5, -112): 65% of the money and 57% of the bets are with ORL
ATS | BKN (road): 12-12-1, ORL (home): 10-12
Total (231.5) | BKN: 20-29 (107.1 ppg), ORL: 24-25 (115.0 ppg)
Jazz (16-35, 6-18 Away) vs. Hawks (25-27, 9-14 Home)
UTA (+10, -108), ATL (-10, -112): 67% of the money and 70% of the bets are with UTA
ATS | UTA (road): 12-12, ATL (home): 15-12
Total (238.5) | UTA: 31-20 (118.3 ppg), ATL: 27-25 (117.3 ppg)
Warriors (27-24, 10-15 Away) vs. Suns (31-20, 17-7 Home)
GSW (+6.5, -110), PHX (-6.5, -110): 55% of the money is with PHX but 56% of the bets are with GSW
ATS | GSW (road): 10-15, PHX (home): 14-12
Total (219.5) | GSW: 29-22 (116.2 ppg), PHX: 22-29 (114.1 ppg)
MCBB
Penn State (10-12, 1-10 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Michigan (20-1, 10-1 Big Ten)
PSU (+25.5, -110), UM (-25.5, -110): 59% of the money and 53% of the bets are with UM
ATS | PSU (road): 3-3, UM (home): 6-5
Total (163.5) | PSU: 13-9 (76.5 ppg), UM: 8-13 (90.5 ppg)
West Virginia (14-8, 5-4 Big 12) vs. Cincinnati (11-11, 3-6 Big 12)
WVU (+5.5, -110), CIN (-5.5, -110): 63% of the money and 56% of the bets are with WVU
ATS | WVU (road): 1-3, CIN (home): 7-6
Total (127.5) | WVU: 7-15 (70.8 ppg), CIN: 5-17 (71.5 ppg)
Ohio State (14-7, 6-5 Big Ten) vs. Maryland (8-13, 1-9 Big Ten)
OSU (-7.5, -102), UMD (+7.5, -120): 72% of the money is with OSU but 54% of the bets are with UMD
ATS | OSU (road): 3-4, UMD (home): 4-6
Total (151.5) | OSU: 11-10 (82.2 ppg), UMD: 14-7 (72.5 ppg)
NHL
Penguins (28-15-12, 15-7-5 Away) vs. Sabres (32-18-6, 17-7-3 Home)
PIT (+1.5, -210), BUF (-1.5, +168): 90% of the money is with BUF but 61% of the bets are with PIT
ATS | PIT (road): 19-8, BUF (home): 16-11
Moneyline | PIT +114, BUF -137: 78% of the money and 70% of the bets are with BUF
Total (6.5) | PIT: 29-26 (3.38 gpg), BUF: 28-28 (3.39 gpg)
Islanders (31-21-5, 15-11-3 Away) vs. Devils (28-26-2, 13-11-2 Home)
NYI (+1.5, -260), NJ (-1.5, +205): 96% of the money and 90% of the bets are with NYI
ATS | NYI (road): 17-12, NJ (home): 6-20
Moneyline | NYI -108, NJ -111: 95% of the money and 62% of the bets are with NYI
Total (5.5) | NYI: 27-30 (2.84 gpg), NJ: 23-33 (2.54 gpg)
Senators (27-22-7, 13-12-3 Away) vs. Flyers (25-20-10, 13-9-6 Home)
OTT (-1.5, +180), PHI (+1.5, -225): 95% of the money is with OTT but 68% of the bets are with PHI
ATS | OTT (road): 14-14, PHI (home): 15-13
Moneyline | OTT -126, PHI +105: 64% of the money and 68% of the bets are with OTT
Total (5.5) | OTT: 33-23 (3.32 gpg), PHI: 32-23 (2.93 gpg)
5. Overtime
In the News
CBS Sports checked in on injuries leading up to Super Bowl LX, with both quarterbacks coming in not 100% healthy. Seahawks starter Sam Darnold has been working through an oblique injury while Patriots signal caller Drake Maye injured his throwing shoulder in the AFC Championship game. All players attended Seattle’s first official Super Bowl practice, while New England linebacker Robert Spillane sat out with an ankle injury but is expected to play.
The Mavericks’ shocking trade of Luka Doncic to the Lakers last year eventually cost Nico Harrison his general manager job with Dallas, and now it’s an even more admitted failure. The Mavericks traded Anthony Davis, who they got in return for Doncic last year, to the Wizards just a year after he arrived in Texas. Dallas is now rookie Cooper Flagg’s team, and they added Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Malaki Branham, Marvin Bagley III, and five draft picks in the deal.
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will have to win in court if he wants a sixth year of college eligibility, as the NCAA denied his waiver request again. Chambliss’s request was blocked earlier because the NCAA believes that based on the medical documents it received, the quarterback could have played in the 2022 season.
With the benefit of hindsight, ESPN re-selected the first two rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft. Quarterback Cam Ward kept his No. 1 spot, but the World Wide Leader had the Browns going with quarterback Tyler Shough rather than trading their pick to the Jaguars, who ended up getting two-way player Travis Hunter (who Jacksonville still gets in this draft at No. 5).
Future Winter Olympics could start in January with temperatures continuing to rise across the globe. According to the Associated Press, the last Games to open before February were the 1964 Innsbruck Olympics, which began on January 29th. The French Alps are set to host the 2030 Games beginning February 1st and the 2034 Utah Winter Games are currently scheduled to begin on February 10th.
What to Watch (times ET)
3pm: Atalanta vs. Juventus (Coppa Italia) on Paramount+
6:30pm: Penn State vs. No. 2 Michigan (MCBB) on FS1
7pm: No. 17 Duke vs. No. 6 Louisville (WCBB) on ESPN (or West Virginia vs. Cincinnati (MCBB) on ESPN2)
7:30pm: Bulls vs. Raptors on Prime Video
9pm: No. 5 LSU vs. No. 4 Texas (WCBB) on ESPN
10pm: Warriors vs. Suns on Prime Video
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